Seattle Mariners vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Bryan Woo vs Gage Jump · 72°F

3.4% edge · Athletics

Seattle Mariners win

57.1%

Athletics win

42.9%

Fair line (home)

+133

Proj. total

9.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 5.21)Athletics (mean 4.18)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.39

Over

44.3%

Under

55.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	57.1%	-161	-133
Athletics	42.9%	+148	+133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryan Woo RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.5	5.3	5.6	1.2	2.4
Gage Jump LHP · Athletics	4.9	4.8	5.2	2.2	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Bryan Woo4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Gage Jump4+ 72%6+ 36%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	5.0	.782	.193	.005	.106	.706	.941	.258	.371	.382	.753
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.718	.218	.010	.178	.555	1.133	.271	.375	.457	.831
Dominic Canzone	4.7	.745	.198	.016	.202	.423	1.010	.271	.341	.466	.807
Cal Raleigh	4.6	.515	.148	.002	.263	.569	1.281	.231	.334	.466	.800
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.788	.192	.011	.205	.368	.964	.292	.358	.494	.852
Josh Naylor	4.4	.801	.192	.004	.151	.388	.617	.288	.357	.452	.809
Cole Young	4.3	.742	.169	.031	.117	.387	.700	.274	.349	.426	.775
Michael Arroyo	4.2	.656	.164	.030	.119	.313	.887	.255	.327	.408	.734
Weston Wilson	4.1	.530	.136	.010	.141	.419	1.188	.225	.311	.385	.695

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.5	.747	.193	.028	.148	.261	1.413	.265	.319	.430	.749
Jeff McNeil	4.4	.817	.208	.014	.106	.259	.572	.279	.332	.413	.745
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.613	.181	.013	.174	.335	1.165	.246	.307	.429	.736
Shea Langeliers	4.2	.581	.192	.004	.259	.270	1.031	.264	.318	.513	.831
Donovan Walton	4.1	.658	.170	.015	.108	.314	.734	.253	.320	.393	.714
Zack Gelof	4.0	.563	.161	.016	.172	.271	1.175	.245	.302	.436	.738
Carlos Cortes	3.9	.589	.183	.013	.139	.266	.800	.256	.312	.429	.741
Jonah Heim	3.8	.561	.141	.004	.125	.224	.776	.234	.285	.381	.666
Alika Williams	3.7	.620	.173	.017	.071	.177	.778	.256	.300	.377	.677

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections