Seattle Mariners vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · George Kirby vs Jeffrey Springs · 80°F

2.4% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

61.8%

Athletics win

38.2%

Fair line (home)

+162

Proj. total

10.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 5.90)Athletics (mean 4.34)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

10.23

Over

44.2%

Under

55.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	61.8%	-154	-162
Athletics	38.2%	+142	+162

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
George Kirby RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	5.0	6.3	1.1	2.6
Jeffrey Springs LHP · Athletics	4.8	4.0	5.7	2.0	3.1

Strikeout ladder

George Kirby4+ 74%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Jeffrey Springs4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	5.0	.837	.203	.007	.141	.626	.848	.274	.370	.421	.792
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.766	.226	.008	.225	.501	1.032	.287	.377	.502	.878
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.761	.214	.015	.262	.370	.920	.286	.345	.521	.866
Cal Raleigh	4.7	.550	.169	.003	.335	.531	1.161	.258	.349	.546	.895
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.803	.205	.015	.257	.330	.882	.306	.362	.546	.909
Josh Naylor	4.5	.822	.197	.005	.188	.359	.545	.299	.360	.489	.848
Taylor Ward	4.3	.634	.177	.012	.173	.567	.921	.267	.369	.460	.829
Cole Young	4.2	.739	.171	.033	.129	.350	.619	.279	.346	.441	.787
Weston Wilson	4.1	.551	.140	.009	.176	.383	1.117	.236	.312	.421	.732

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.831	.201	.028	.150	.261	1.307	.283	.334	.448	.782
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.864	.214	.017	.105	.251	.516	.288	.338	.423	.761
Zack Gelof	4.4	.666	.193	.017	.189	.275	1.180	.262	.315	.458	.772
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.651	.189	.016	.177	.316	1.057	.262	.319	.452	.771
Max Muncy	4.2	.645	.175	.019	.149	.203	1.197	.253	.301	.422	.723
Donovan Walton	4.1	.695	.170	.016	.113	.283	.668	.266	.327	.411	.738
Tommy White	4.0	.752	.189	.011	.110	.124	.659	.279	.308	.422	.730
Carlos Cortes	3.8	.617	.195	.012	.142	.234	.716	.269	.319	.449	.768
Jonah Heim	3.7	.585	.149	.003	.129	.212	.685	.248	.295	.404	.699

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections