Seattle Mariners vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs Jacob Lopez · 76°F

2.7% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

57.8%

Athletics win

42.2%

Fair line (home)

+137

Proj. total

9.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 5.34)Athletics (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.59

Over

45.4%

Under

44.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	57.8%	-128	-137
Athletics	42.2%	+118	+137

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.0	4.9	5.2	1.5	2.3
Jacob Lopez LHP · Athletics	4.5	4.4	4.7	2.1	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Bryce Miller4+ 73%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Jacob Lopez4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	5.0	.775	.183	.006	.116	.707	.926	.257	.370	.386	.755
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.711	.207	.009	.181	.557	1.112	.267	.373	.452	.824
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.715	.200	.016	.228	.420	1.011	.270	.340	.484	.824
Cal Raleigh	4.6	.516	.145	.002	.297	.588	1.267	.240	.345	.500	.845
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.779	.183	.011	.225	.384	.953	.293	.361	.508	.869
Josh Naylor	4.4	.783	.186	.004	.169	.399	.599	.287	.357	.462	.819
Michael Arroyo	4.3	.674	.168	.028	.126	.327	.921	.256	.328	.411	.739
Weston Wilson	4.2	.546	.134	.010	.160	.427	1.220	.227	.311	.396	.708
Jhonny Pereda	4.1	.728	.166	.007	.076	.396	.832	.267	.344	.379	.724

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.772	.203	.026	.149	.337	1.350	.274	.337	.441	.778
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.809	.213	.017	.114	.312	.531	.280	.340	.424	.764
Zack Gelof	4.4	.622	.183	.017	.196	.337	1.197	.254	.317	.455	.773
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.626	.181	.011	.171	.406	1.087	.257	.329	.443	.772
Max Muncy	4.2	.610	.171	.020	.153	.249	1.230	.246	.301	.419	.720
Donovan Walton	4.1	.649	.166	.013	.115	.358	.672	.258	.332	.404	.736
Carlos Cortes	4.0	.604	.187	.013	.143	.304	.747	.261	.323	.438	.761
Brian Serven	3.8	.513	.137	.010	.112	.275	1.132	.219	.284	.359	.643
Alika Williams	3.7	.636	.176	.018	.078	.201	.762	.261	.308	.389	.697

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections