Houston Astros vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez · 74°F

2.6% edge · Athletics

Houston Astros win

60.0%

Athletics win

40.0%

Fair line (home)

+150

Proj. total

9.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 5.51)Athletics (mean 4.09)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.6

Over

45.6%

Under

44.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	60.0%	-177	-150
Athletics	40.0%	+162	+150

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	5.6	4.9	1.9	2.1
Jacob Lopez LHP · Athletics	4.5	4.0	4.9	2.0	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Hunter Brown4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Jacob Lopez4+ 58%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	5.0	.861	.211	.021	.180	.328	.954	.280	.340	.455	.796
Yordan Alvarez	4.8	.752	.221	.011	.311	.801	.760	.326	.446	.622	1.069
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.665	.186	.010	.220	.618	.672	.269	.380	.484	.864
Jose Altuve	4.6	.787	.187	.017	.174	.423	.790	.279	.351	.457	.808
Yainer Diaz	4.5	.838	.207	.015	.200	.215	.704	.294	.332	.490	.822
Christian Walker	4.4	.574	.170	.008	.227	.419	1.040	.249	.331	.469	.800
Cam Smith	4.3	.606	.149	.043	.166	.387	1.036	.250	.327	.440	.767
Lucas Spence	4.2	.534	.158	.039	.126	.387	1.164	.229	.311	.394	.704
Jorge Barrosa	4.1	.563	.167	.013	.084	.336	1.009	.224	.296	.344	.640

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.699	.169	.024	.129	.393	1.530	.248	.324	.394	.719
Lawrence Butler	4.5	.606	.172	.016	.157	.493	1.294	.240	.326	.410	.736
Shea Langeliers	4.4	.561	.182	.005	.232	.385	1.133	.248	.320	.472	.792
Jeff McNeil	4.3	.739	.186	.015	.087	.361	.619	.268	.340	.392	.732
Zack Gelof	4.2	.551	.146	.012	.166	.384	1.268	.234	.312	.412	.725
Donovan Walton	4.1	.610	.146	.014	.103	.415	.797	.243	.330	.378	.708
Carlos Cortes	4.0	.549	.167	.017	.126	.349	.891	.240	.314	.402	.716
Tommy White	3.8	.649	.157	.007	.103	.174	.784	.253	.293	.385	.678
Jonah Heim	3.7	.497	.136	.004	.116	.297	.814	.222	.289	.366	.655

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections