New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Grant Holmes · 85°F

0.9% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

50.4%

Atlanta Braves win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

9.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.77)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.48)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.25

Over

42.4%

Under

47.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	50.4%	-102	-102
Atlanta Braves	49.6%	-106	+102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.9	.807	.195	.034	.054	.477	1.235	.250	.329	.348	.677
Juan Soto	4.7	.627	.152	.016	.284	.895	.832	.282	.421	.553	.973
Bo Bichette	4.7	.856	.199	.015	.141	.315	.823	.281	.333	.432	.765
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.675	.158	.018	.189	.421	.877	.258	.339	.446	.785
Carson Benge	4.4	.685	.174	.020	.137	.372	1.005	.253	.324	.409	.733
Jared Young	4.3	.599	.164	.016	.164	.412	1.096	.245	.326	.423	.749
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.534	.147	.010	.205	.391	1.076	.237	.315	.443	.759
Brett Baty	4.1	.624	.131	.014	.136	.339	1.104	.242	.309	.394	.703
Luis Torrens	4.0	.589	.167	.009	.105	.244	.935	.235	.291	.371	.662

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.736	.160	.012	.227	.454	.866	.278	.356	.489	.845
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.732	.187	.013	.148	.328	.701	.264	.327	.424	.751
Matt Olson	4.4	.564	.188	.007	.231	.523	1.085	.260	.355	.494	.849
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.755	.188	.017	.086	.253	.621	.262	.312	.383	.695
Michael Harris II	4.2	.717	.173	.023	.196	.190	.829	.282	.321	.487	.807
Dominic Smith	4.0	.664	.140	.014	.120	.325	.816	.255	.323	.399	.722
Austin Riley	4.0	.561	.146	.014	.172	.325	1.095	.250	.322	.443	.765
Mike Yastrzemski	3.8	.477	.139	.018	.138	.422	.927	.229	.323	.404	.727
Jorge Mateo	3.7	.527	.157	.011	.101	.229	1.000	.230	.283	.370	.653

Data notes: away starter Christian Scott: only 73 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections