New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Chris Sale · 84°F

3.5% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

42.9%

Atlanta Braves win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

8.38

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 3.97)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.40)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.38

Over

41.8%

Under

50.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	42.9%	+149	+133
Atlanta Braves	57.1%	-162	-133

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.651	.161	.012	.165	.323	1.124	.233	.305	.393	.698
Juan Soto	4.6	.589	.135	.014	.247	.746	1.001	.259	.384	.496	.880
Bo Bichette	4.5	.784	.188	.014	.119	.261	.957	.264	.312	.401	.713
Mark Vientos	4.4	.585	.157	.008	.186	.242	1.346	.229	.281	.409	.689
Eric Wagaman	4.3	.597	.156	.019	.120	.259	1.193	.225	.277	.365	.642
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.502	.133	.009	.182	.327	1.245	.219	.291	.404	.695
Carson Benge	4.0	.609	.147	.019	.104	.274	1.092	.237	.299	.371	.670
Tyrone Taylor	3.9	.516	.164	.018	.084	.174	1.066	.212	.261	.335	.596
Brett Baty	3.8	.542	.119	.011	.111	.266	1.179	.224	.284	.359	.642

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mauricio Dubón	4.6	.812	.191	.018	.089	.280	.666	.261	.311	.377	.688
Drake Baldwin	4.5	.708	.151	.012	.206	.478	.855	.273	.358	.474	.833
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.698	.183	.007	.149	.322	.674	.261	.326	.423	.750
Matt Olson	4.3	.539	.176	.005	.232	.545	1.048	.260	.361	.500	.861
Austin Riley	4.1	.585	.165	.015	.184	.351	1.150	.254	.327	.454	.781
Michael Harris II	4.0	.688	.167	.026	.184	.212	.807	.281	.325	.484	.808
Eli White	3.9	.582	.108	.034	.114	.287	1.036	.234	.300	.379	.679
Joey Bart	3.8	.560	.120	.009	.102	.382	1.118	.235	.326	.368	.694
Jorge Mateo	3.7	.532	.162	.011	.101	.239	1.006	.235	.290	.377	.667

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections