New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez · 87°F

1.0% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

49.8%

Atlanta Braves win

50.2%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

9.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.65)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.37)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.02

Over

40.6%

Under

48.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	49.8%	+101	+101
Atlanta Braves	50.2%	-109	-101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.743	.181	.014	.185	.393	.872	.258	.332	.434	.766
Juan Soto	4.7	.645	.159	.015	.270	.861	.768	.284	.418	.545	.963
Bo Bichette	4.6	.876	.206	.014	.140	.301	.757	.288	.338	.440	.779
Mark Vientos	4.5	.656	.181	.010	.214	.296	1.103	.254	.309	.456	.764
Carson Benge	4.4	.705	.175	.024	.131	.346	.930	.258	.323	.411	.734
Tyrone Taylor	4.3	.624	.187	.024	.109	.223	.907	.235	.285	.376	.661
A.J. Ewing	4.2	.736	.164	.032	.045	.391	1.002	.259	.333	.356	.689
Luis Torrens	4.1	.611	.177	.009	.106	.246	.908	.239	.293	.375	.668
Brett Baty	3.9	.616	.131	.014	.134	.324	.993	.249	.314	.404	.719

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.747	.164	.011	.196	.508	.901	.274	.362	.465	.826
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.743	.183	.013	.137	.378	.702	.263	.335	.415	.750
Matt Olson	4.4	.576	.191	.007	.201	.586	1.103	.258	.364	.473	.837
Michael Harris II	4.3	.748	.189	.023	.167	.209	.889	.278	.320	.459	.779
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.739	.181	.015	.072	.270	.607	.258	.312	.368	.680
Dominic Smith	4.1	.660	.144	.014	.103	.357	.846	.251	.326	.381	.708
Austin Riley	4.0	.578	.151	.013	.155	.357	1.123	.252	.329	.431	.761
Mike Yastrzemski	3.9	.474	.141	.017	.121	.473	.958	.225	.329	.386	.714
Jim Jarvis	3.8	.591	.142	.018	.032	.331	.779	.232	.309	.313	.623

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections