New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 6, 2026 · Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López · 82°F

1.9% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

47.6%

Atlanta Braves win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

8.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.40)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.40)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.8

Over

40.0%

Under

49.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	47.6%	+114	+110
Atlanta Braves	52.4%	-124	-110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.800	.180	.031	.048	.434	1.283	.245	.318	.334	.653
Juan Soto	4.7	.598	.141	.014	.263	.857	.877	.268	.405	.520	.925
Bo Bichette	4.6	.824	.189	.014	.125	.299	.843	.271	.322	.410	.732
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.639	.154	.015	.168	.399	.916	.244	.324	.416	.740
Carson Benge	4.4	.666	.154	.020	.118	.344	1.051	.241	.308	.378	.686
Jared Young	4.3	.571	.162	.017	.152	.375	1.132	.236	.313	.406	.719
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.527	.137	.007	.192	.364	1.093	.230	.306	.424	.730
Brett Baty	4.0	.583	.127	.013	.127	.324	1.135	.230	.296	.375	.671
Ronny Mauricio	3.9	.579	.124	.008	.138	.212	1.079	.232	.280	.383	.663

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Michael Harris II	4.6	.787	.193	.023	.207	.237	.983	.279	.322	.478	.800
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.714	.181	.011	.152	.364	.740	.260	.328	.421	.749
Matt Olson	4.4	.547	.175	.006	.236	.587	1.124	.256	.362	.495	.856
Drake Baldwin	4.3	.668	.149	.011	.205	.454	.868	.272	.356	.480	.836
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.719	.177	.014	.086	.267	.645	.257	.309	.376	.685
Dominic Smith	4.1	.653	.143	.014	.108	.349	.874	.250	.322	.384	.707
Austin Riley	4.0	.545	.148	.014	.178	.362	1.141	.249	.327	.449	.776
Mike Yastrzemski	3.9	.471	.136	.017	.131	.462	.972	.225	.325	.393	.717
Jim Jarvis	3.7	.580	.137	.018	.037	.323	.802	.229	.305	.314	.620

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections