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3.7% edge · Atlanta BravesTexas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds
July 18, 2026 · MacKenzie Gore vs Owen Murphy · 89°F
Texas Rangers win
45.4%
Atlanta Braves win
54.6%
Fair line (home)
-120
Proj. total
9.11
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Texas Rangers (mean 4.46)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.64)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.11
Over
41.0%
Under
48.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 45.4% | -100 | +120 |
| Atlanta Braves | 54.6% | -108 | -120 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.8 | .589 | .132 | .022 | .246 | .532 | 1.150 | .238 | .335 | .458 | .792 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.7 | .640 | .174 | .022 | .211 | .508 | 1.106 | .255 | .342 | .462 | .804 |
| Josh Jung | 4.5 | .741 | .203 | .007 | .170 | .280 | 1.054 | .264 | .315 | .436 | .751 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.4 | .671 | .167 | .020 | .167 | .415 | 1.007 | .258 | .337 | .437 | .774 |
| Jake Burger | 4.3 | .581 | .162 | .008 | .229 | .272 | 1.117 | .244 | .301 | .460 | .760 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.2 | .657 | .187 | .018 | .115 | .233 | 1.031 | .247 | .295 | .390 | .686 |
| Evan Carter | 4.1 | .523 | .132 | .033 | .139 | .455 | 1.014 | .229 | .324 | .398 | .722 |
| Nicky Lopez | 4.0 | .733 | .124 | .019 | .030 | .298 | .659 | .247 | .312 | .316 | .628 |
| Kyle Higashioka | 3.9 | .516 | .126 | .010 | .170 | .254 | .998 | .227 | .283 | .409 | .691 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | 4.6 | .718 | .153 | .012 | .235 | .462 | .983 | .272 | .352 | .487 | .839 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.5 | .741 | .190 | .007 | .172 | .323 | .732 | .269 | .329 | .443 | .773 |
| Matt Olson | 4.4 | .574 | .188 | .006 | .265 | .552 | 1.133 | .271 | .368 | .532 | .900 |
| Michael Harris II | 4.3 | .758 | .185 | .021 | .207 | .209 | .917 | .288 | .327 | .497 | .824 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.2 | .774 | .183 | .014 | .101 | .263 | .610 | .275 | .324 | .406 | .730 |
| Eli White | 4.1 | .614 | .127 | .027 | .130 | .292 | 1.137 | .240 | .302 | .393 | .694 |
| Austin Riley | 4.0 | .568 | .154 | .011 | .179 | .333 | 1.167 | .254 | .325 | .452 | .777 |
| Joey Bart | 3.8 | .563 | .122 | .009 | .125 | .377 | 1.162 | .241 | .328 | .393 | .721 |
| Jim Jarvis | 3.7 | .614 | .148 | .019 | .051 | .321 | .758 | .246 | .318 | .347 | .664 |
Data notes: home starter Owen Murphy: only 9 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Owen Murphy: only 5 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections