San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · JP Sears vs Bryce Elder · 94°F

1.7% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

47.2%

Atlanta Braves win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.77)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.86)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.63

Over

46.1%

Under

42.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	47.2%	+115	+112
Atlanta Braves	52.8%	-125	-112

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.822	.219	.016	.217	.439	.882	.292	.362	.498	.860
Jackson Merrill	4.7	.757	.221	.034	.185	.294	.955	.271	.320	.462	.782
Manny Machado	4.6	.722	.194	.004	.232	.385	.874	.273	.336	.486	.821
Ty France	4.5	.782	.179	.019	.141	.258	.855	.271	.331	.425	.756
Gavin Sheets	4.4	.652	.189	.006	.168	.367	.843	.254	.322	.430	.752
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.777	.176	.005	.121	.351	.710	.276	.339	.416	.756
Jake Cronenworth	4.2	.618	.162	.014	.110	.412	.795	.244	.330	.384	.714
Freddy Fermin	4.1	.660	.153	.006	.111	.292	.763	.248	.306	.381	.687
Sung-Mun Song	4.0	.709	.151	.013	.097	.264	.661	.264	.315	.391	.706

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.754	.160	.011	.249	.417	.861	.282	.355	.506	.861
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.742	.192	.006	.187	.293	.647	.270	.327	.454	.781
Matt Olson	4.4	.599	.197	.007	.297	.493	.991	.284	.371	.569	.940
Austin Riley	4.3	.647	.168	.015	.221	.326	1.123	.268	.333	.488	.821
Michael Harris II	4.2	.757	.186	.021	.224	.180	.785	.298	.333	.523	.856
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.756	.189	.015	.105	.230	.535	.278	.323	.417	.740
Joey Bart	4.0	.605	.128	.010	.140	.349	1.113	.248	.330	.409	.738
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.645	.167	.019	.060	.307	.706	.252	.319	.361	.680
Eli White	3.8	.583	.113	.029	.129	.249	.958	.246	.305	.407	.712

Data notes: away starter JP Sears: only 18 BF vs LHB this season · away starter JP Sears: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections