San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Michael King vs Martín Pérez · 87°F

0.6% edge · Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres win

48.0%

Atlanta Braves win

52.0%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.66)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.66)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.32

Over

53.2%

Under

46.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	48.0%	+102	+108
Atlanta Braves	52.0%	-110	-108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.824	.212	.015	.205	.484	.864	.291	.368	.491	.859
Luis Rengifo	4.7	.846	.169	.013	.103	.290	.756	.257	.310	.373	.682
Manny Machado	4.6	.686	.185	.003	.227	.418	.882	.264	.333	.472	.806
Ty France	4.5	.742	.174	.017	.143	.275	.854	.262	.326	.416	.743
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.694	.199	.028	.165	.302	.906	.267	.321	.451	.773
Luis Campusano	4.3	.676	.171	.006	.168	.417	.814	.266	.343	.445	.788
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.736	.170	.005	.110	.362	.697	.270	.338	.404	.742
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.582	.159	.014	.101	.422	.773	.239	.329	.376	.705
Jase Bowen	4.0	.547	.138	.032	.106	.249	1.133	.224	.278	.365	.643

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.751	.151	.012	.206	.469	.943	.272	.354	.465	.819
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.734	.192	.010	.158	.369	.703	.266	.334	.434	.768
Matt Olson	4.4	.584	.187	.008	.251	.558	1.079	.270	.368	.521	.889
Michael Harris II	4.3	.759	.188	.025	.194	.221	.879	.288	.330	.490	.819
Austin Riley	4.2	.613	.163	.012	.181	.355	1.187	.255	.327	.447	.774
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.519	.157	.022	.155	.478	1.004	.238	.334	.424	.758
Mauricio Dubón	4.0	.746	.184	.013	.088	.253	.560	.277	.327	.405	.733
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.626	.159	.018	.046	.341	.774	.243	.316	.338	.654
Brewer Hicklen	3.8	.492	.127	.020	.130	.307	1.220	.227	.303	.392	.694

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections