San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo López · 89°F

1.6% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

44.2%

Atlanta Braves win

55.8%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

9.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.56)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.98)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.54

Over

45.4%

Under

44.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	44.2%	+130	+126
Atlanta Braves	55.8%	-141	-126

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.758	.202	.015	.208	.488	.989	.276	.355	.475	.831
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.640	.180	.017	.127	.485	.997	.232	.323	.375	.699
Manny Machado	4.6	.666	.179	.003	.228	.396	.981	.258	.324	.466	.790
Ty France	4.5	.720	.162	.015	.138	.278	.963	.253	.318	.401	.719
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.657	.186	.027	.166	.286	1.028	.255	.308	.437	.745
Luis Campusano	4.3	.650	.155	.007	.171	.414	.910	.257	.335	.436	.771
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.562	.170	.006	.156	.362	.913	.238	.310	.410	.721
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.693	.152	.004	.111	.358	.762	.262	.332	.396	.727
Luis Rengifo	3.9	.673	.129	.015	.096	.268	.699	.252	.310	.374	.684

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.773	.162	.012	.225	.488	.877	.283	.365	.491	.856
Ozzie Albies	4.6	.773	.199	.012	.161	.370	.639	.276	.343	.446	.789
Matt Olson	4.5	.622	.204	.005	.258	.581	.983	.284	.383	.541	.924
Austin Riley	4.3	.661	.169	.016	.192	.382	1.150	.265	.339	.464	.802
Michael Harris II	4.2	.786	.189	.023	.190	.218	.803	.297	.338	.498	.836
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.793	.197	.018	.095	.260	.528	.286	.335	.420	.755
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.551	.155	.019	.164	.475	.889	.253	.349	.449	.798
Brewer Hicklen	3.9	.532	.127	.022	.132	.336	1.203	.231	.310	.393	.703
Jim Jarvis	3.8	.636	.156	.020	.046	.337	.708	.251	.325	.348	.673

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections