Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 30, 2026 · Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes · 87°F

1.0% edge · Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals win

40.0%

Atlanta Braves win

60.0%

Fair line (home)

-150

Proj. total

10.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.70)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.55)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.25

Over

44.5%

Under

48.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	40.0%	+139	+150
Atlanta Braves	60.0%	-151	-150

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.8	.623	.209	.008	.266	.707	1.372	.270	.381	.520	.901
Luis García Jr.	4.7	.811	.205	.026	.229	.259	.723	.286	.328	.498	.826
Dylan Crews	4.6	.683	.171	.017	.169	.331	1.057	.247	.310	.416	.726
CJ Abrams	4.5	.677	.184	.030	.198	.321	.911	.266	.331	.470	.801
Daylen Lile	4.4	.750	.192	.053	.132	.285	.771	.277	.330	.447	.777
Keibert Ruiz	4.3	.731	.185	.004	.143	.211	.532	.264	.308	.418	.726
José Tena	4.2	.670	.173	.026	.108	.305	1.095	.255	.313	.398	.711
Jorbit Vivas	4.1	.638	.166	.008	.072	.412	.610	.247	.335	.358	.694
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.647	.089	.029	.047	.396	.951	.230	.312	.312	.623

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.797	.171	.013	.249	.465	.794	.292	.368	.515	.883
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.754	.176	.017	.242	.655	.849	.304	.410	.543	.954
Matt Olson	4.5	.640	.208	.009	.283	.557	.940	.290	.383	.564	.948
Michael Harris II	4.4	.839	.202	.026	.237	.207	.760	.312	.349	.544	.893
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.731	.191	.010	.171	.325	.546	.281	.344	.466	.809
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.803	.193	.014	.107	.255	.478	.286	.333	.424	.758
Dominic Smith	4.1	.730	.158	.014	.135	.335	.698	.280	.347	.439	.786
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.545	.160	.019	.180	.447	.833	.259	.349	.471	.820
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.670	.163	.018	.054	.329	.645	.260	.330	.363	.693

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections