San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

July 23, 2026 · Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale · 89°F

9.1% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

39.6%

Atlanta Braves win

60.4%

Fair line (home)

-152

Proj. total

8.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.76)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.60)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.36

Over

44.6%

Under

47.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	39.6%	+220	+152
Atlanta Braves	60.4%	-244	-152

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.725	.197	.011	.184	.396	1.137	.265	.336	.448	.784
Luis Rengifo	4.6	.759	.149	.011	.097	.231	.979	.238	.286	.346	.632
Manny Machado	4.5	.625	.166	.003	.200	.329	1.128	.242	.302	.430	.732
Ty France	4.3	.680	.154	.014	.117	.223	1.075	.243	.307	.377	.685
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.713	.159	.005	.113	.318	.941	.255	.318	.386	.703
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.549	.164	.005	.143	.319	1.049	.228	.296	.387	.683
Freddy Fermin	4.0	.602	.142	.004	.095	.265	.975	.227	.286	.344	.630
Jase Bowen	3.9	.505	.117	.024	.098	.211	1.365	.203	.254	.329	.583
Jake Cronenworth	3.8	.506	.132	.013	.097	.343	.931	.222	.309	.356	.664

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.726	.151	.011	.210	.472	.941	.269	.352	.466	.817
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.742	.187	.008	.147	.345	.688	.265	.330	.422	.751
Matt Olson	4.4	.591	.195	.006	.233	.560	1.063	.271	.369	.510	.879
Michael Harris II	4.3	.768	.192	.021	.194	.216	.853	.291	.331	.493	.824
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.774	.190	.014	.087	.263	.586	.274	.323	.397	.720
Austin Riley	4.1	.595	.164	.014	.161	.350	1.161	.254	.327	.438	.764
Dominic Smith	4.0	.656	.142	.014	.109	.348	.792	.258	.331	.397	.728
Mike Yastrzemski	3.9	.505	.146	.016	.135	.455	.931	.239	.336	.413	.750
Jim Jarvis	3.7	.608	.151	.016	.048	.332	.726	.244	.318	.342	.660

Data notes: away starter Kyle Hart: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections