Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Ryan Gusto vs Grant Holmes · 77°F

0.2% edge · Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins win

41.9%

Atlanta Braves win

58.1%

Fair line (home)

-139

Proj. total

9.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.28)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.85)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.13

Over

42.3%

Under

47.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	41.9%	+133	+139
Atlanta Braves	58.1%	-145	-139

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.594	.177	.033	.205	.465	1.456	.237	.320	.438	.758
Griffin Conine	4.7	.591	.163	.011	.198	.449	1.538	.231	.312	.417	.729
Otto Lopez	4.5	.862	.199	.033	.110	.313	.678	.286	.340	.427	.767
Owen Caissie	4.5	.555	.175	.011	.176	.398	1.552	.228	.303	.409	.712
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.549	.146	.017	.189	.456	1.204	.234	.321	.429	.750
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.560	.134	.034	.088	.510	.989	.222	.326	.350	.676
Leo Jiménez	4.1	.626	.164	.008	.091	.346	.921	.242	.324	.365	.689
Joe Mack	4.0	.534	.137	.008	.142	.332	1.109	.224	.294	.382	.677
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.666	.202	.027	.067	.257	.413	.265	.317	.391	.709

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.738	.155	.014	.215	.465	.888	.271	.351	.470	.821
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.704	.163	.018	.192	.664	.910	.282	.396	.485	.881
Matt Olson	4.4	.582	.185	.008	.243	.560	1.026	.265	.363	.507	.870
Michael Harris II	4.3	.770	.187	.019	.193	.212	.824	.286	.326	.482	.808
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.700	.184	.009	.139	.329	.608	.268	.333	.429	.763
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.514	.156	.021	.150	.497	.950	.234	.334	.416	.749
Dominic Smith	4.0	.675	.146	.012	.106	.339	.758	.259	.329	.393	.723
Austin Riley	3.9	.565	.152	.011	.151	.323	1.068	.249	.320	.427	.747
Jim Jarvis	3.8	.625	.153	.018	.046	.323	.697	.246	.318	.341	.659

Data notes: away starter Ryan Gusto: only 71 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections