New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 10, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Bryce Elder · 90°F

4.3% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

47.1%

Atlanta Braves win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

10.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.98)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.03)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.01

Over

59.5%

Under

40.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	47.1%	+129	+112
Atlanta Braves	52.9%	-140	-112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.9	.877	.210	.030	.102	.434	1.045	.277	.346	.408	.753
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.752	.185	.027	.210	.395	.801	.274	.345	.476	.821
Bo Bichette	4.6	.905	.220	.014	.156	.282	.718	.299	.346	.465	.811
Carson Benge	4.5	.789	.181	.028	.147	.347	.876	.277	.338	.440	.778
Jared Young	4.4	.648	.186	.013	.187	.378	.950	.259	.332	.453	.785
Marcus Semien	4.3	.670	.152	.015	.159	.342	.740	.252	.316	.419	.736
Brett Baty	4.2	.673	.146	.013	.143	.343	1.008	.255	.320	.412	.732
Jorge Polanco	4.1	.598	.148	.004	.195	.381	.793	.257	.331	.459	.790
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.551	.144	.009	.211	.332	.960	.253	.322	.472	.794

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.739	.158	.012	.250	.454	.949	.278	.356	.502	.858
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.696	.159	.018	.225	.647	.982	.284	.395	.510	.904
Matt Olson	4.5	.579	.187	.007	.287	.542	1.096	.274	.368	.548	.915
Michael Harris II	4.3	.751	.185	.020	.218	.208	.892	.286	.325	.500	.825
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.681	.178	.011	.159	.330	.650	.267	.332	.443	.775
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.735	.190	.015	.096	.247	.579	.269	.318	.401	.719
Austin Riley	4.0	.566	.155	.013	.193	.336	1.128	.255	.327	.465	.792
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.629	.157	.017	.055	.337	.770	.243	.316	.344	.659
Sean Murphy	3.8	.423	.127	.009	.172	.404	1.075	.221	.319	.421	.741

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections