New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez · 81°F

2.0% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

47.4%

Atlanta Braves win

52.6%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.70)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.75)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.46

Over

54.6%

Under

45.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	47.4%	+116	+111
Atlanta Braves	52.6%	-125	-111

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.870	.200	.031	.091	.470	1.044	.275	.349	.398	.748
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.743	.175	.017	.189	.384	.785	.265	.338	.448	.785
Bo Bichette	4.6	.901	.207	.015	.147	.298	.711	.297	.346	.455	.801
Luis Robert Jr.	4.5	.659	.180	.007	.175	.360	1.149	.249	.316	.425	.740
Carson Benge	4.4	.747	.165	.025	.137	.353	.867	.269	.334	.426	.760
Marcus Semien	4.3	.651	.145	.017	.143	.366	.727	.245	.314	.402	.715
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.570	.148	.009	.205	.375	.983	.248	.322	.455	.778
Jorge Polanco	4.1	.588	.143	.002	.176	.374	.805	.248	.323	.432	.755
Gabriel Arias	4.0	.566	.159	.016	.127	.251	1.191	.236	.292	.392	.684

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.753	.156	.013	.187	.487	.981	.268	.354	.447	.801
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.688	.167	.017	.189	.700	1.001	.278	.399	.479	.878
Matt Olson	4.5	.591	.201	.006	.216	.587	1.117	.263	.366	.486	.852
Michael Harris II	4.4	.778	.191	.023	.175	.224	.917	.284	.326	.469	.795
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.683	.178	.011	.131	.352	.683	.260	.332	.414	.746
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.775	.195	.013	.080	.272	.585	.276	.329	.396	.724
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.511	.156	.019	.131	.500	1.005	.233	.337	.401	.738
Austin Riley	3.9	.561	.152	.012	.139	.349	1.126	.245	.322	.413	.735
Jim Jarvis	3.8	.623	.155	.021	.042	.346	.757	.245	.322	.339	.660

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections