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3.4% edge · New York MetsNew York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds
August 12, 2026 · Zac Thornton vs Tyler Mahle · 90°F
New York Mets win
40.2%
Atlanta Braves win
59.8%
Fair line (home)
-149
Proj. total
9.94
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Mets (mean 4.57)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.37)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.94
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 40.2% | +166 | +149 |
| Atlanta Braves | 59.8% | -182 | -149 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Ewing | 4.8 | .829 | .191 | .028 | .093 | .443 | 1.107 | .263 | .335 | .385 | .719 |
| Francisco Lindor | 4.7 | .712 | .165 | .028 | .200 | .409 | .821 | .262 | .336 | .456 | .792 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.6 | .876 | .215 | .013 | .149 | .285 | .739 | .293 | .341 | .455 | .796 |
| Carson Benge | 4.5 | .730 | .171 | .023 | .140 | .359 | .925 | .261 | .326 | .418 | .744 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 4.4 | .627 | .168 | .007 | .176 | .342 | 1.156 | .245 | .309 | .423 | .732 |
| Jared Young | 4.3 | .594 | .169 | .012 | .177 | .365 | .978 | .247 | .320 | .436 | .756 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.1 | .567 | .142 | .009 | .214 | .348 | 1.009 | .247 | .317 | .460 | .777 |
| Brett Baty | 4.0 | .613 | .139 | .013 | .139 | .337 | 1.009 | .246 | .313 | .404 | .716 |
| Luis Torrens | 3.9 | .589 | .166 | .007 | .104 | .246 | .851 | .238 | .292 | .373 | .665 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 4.7 | .769 | .177 | .017 | .232 | .684 | .860 | .301 | .410 | .530 | .940 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.6 | .760 | .165 | .011 | .232 | .463 | .792 | .286 | .364 | .501 | .866 |
| Matt Olson | 4.5 | .624 | .202 | .007 | .267 | .540 | .961 | .281 | .373 | .541 | .914 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.4 | .751 | .201 | .007 | .169 | .303 | .555 | .280 | .338 | .460 | .799 |
| Michael Harris II | 4.3 | .780 | .200 | .022 | .212 | .205 | .743 | .301 | .338 | .519 | .856 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.2 | .792 | .192 | .016 | .095 | .248 | .486 | .282 | .329 | .413 | .741 |
| Lane Thomas | 4.0 | .598 | .192 | .011 | .155 | .399 | .884 | .265 | .345 | .453 | .798 |
| Austin Riley | 3.9 | .594 | .162 | .012 | .173 | .330 | .995 | .264 | .333 | .461 | .794 |
| Sean Murphy | 3.8 | .468 | .138 | .007 | .167 | .399 | .970 | .232 | .326 | .427 | .753 |
Data notes: away starter Zac Thornton: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections