Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Brandon Pfaadt vs Chris Sale · 94°F

1.1% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

37.7%

Atlanta Braves win

62.3%

Fair line (home)

-165

Proj. total

9.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.23)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.20)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.43

Over

54.3%

Under

38.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	37.7%	+168	+165
Atlanta Braves	62.3%	-184	-165

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.792	.169	.024	.096	.462	.806	.256	.340	.375	.715
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.598	.173	.088	.190	.426	1.197	.252	.331	.472	.803
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.803	.200	.010	.114	.402	.916	.275	.346	.412	.759
Ketel Marte	4.4	.686	.192	.020	.191	.321	.858	.268	.331	.467	.798
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.652	.179	.009	.143	.261	.914	.244	.298	.399	.697
Ildemaro Vargas	4.2	.749	.164	.028	.079	.188	.579	.256	.299	.371	.670
Tim Tawa	4.1	.529	.155	.019	.122	.290	1.193	.218	.280	.366	.645
Tyler Locklear	4.0	.575	.163	.016	.110	.272	1.206	.237	.303	.381	.684
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.559	.156	.024	.066	.320	1.183	.230	.306	.345	.651

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.805	.167	.012	.227	.406	.825	.287	.357	.495	.851
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.776	.180	.019	.217	.580	.853	.304	.401	.526	.926
Matt Olson	4.5	.655	.209	.007	.257	.476	.964	.286	.368	.539	.907
Michael Harris II	4.3	.831	.207	.025	.203	.173	.757	.305	.338	.514	.851
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.743	.201	.014	.155	.291	.552	.285	.341	.462	.803
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.821	.196	.016	.094	.220	.481	.289	.331	.420	.751
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.558	.170	.022	.154	.414	.837	.253	.337	.443	.779
Austin Riley	3.9	.611	.174	.014	.166	.286	.981	.270	.332	.466	.798
Jim Jarvis	3.8	.688	.170	.018	.051	.281	.652	.266	.326	.369	.695

Data notes: game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections