Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Michael Soroka vs Bryce Elder · 94°F

0.0% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

45.7%

Atlanta Braves win

54.3%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

10.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.04)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.22)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.26

Over

51.4%

Under

38.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	45.7%	+115	+119
Atlanta Braves	54.3%	-124	-119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.9	.873	.188	.041	.109	.553	.577	.283	.372	.423	.794
Corbin Carroll	4.8	.666	.192	.102	.222	.484	.924	.279	.360	.530	.890
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.910	.220	.012	.135	.430	.701	.304	.373	.459	.833
Ketel Marte	4.6	.763	.213	.034	.215	.405	.642	.297	.366	.522	.888
Max Kepler	4.5	.686	.199	.018	.158	.371	.846	.262	.329	.437	.766
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.729	.193	.010	.156	.278	.679	.270	.322	.438	.761
Tim Tawa	4.2	.626	.171	.025	.146	.336	.922	.250	.315	.421	.736
James McCann	4.1	.681	.181	.009	.118	.192	.957	.254	.296	.396	.692
Jorge Barrosa	4.0	.610	.179	.022	.067	.302	.924	.239	.302	.355	.656

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.804	.166	.013	.220	.444	.892	.285	.361	.486	.847
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.771	.175	.018	.212	.625	.923	.299	.405	.515	.920
Matt Olson	4.5	.633	.210	.006	.253	.522	1.041	.279	.369	.527	.896
Michael Harris II	4.4	.836	.204	.024	.205	.192	.827	.304	.340	.512	.852
Mike Yastrzemski	4.3	.588	.174	.022	.159	.462	.955	.250	.340	.435	.775
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.721	.182	.012	.143	.310	.588	.277	.340	.443	.784
Dominic Smith	4.1	.723	.162	.014	.115	.322	.761	.274	.341	.418	.759
Austin Riley	4.0	.616	.164	.015	.169	.318	1.042	.268	.337	.463	.801
Jim Jarvis	3.8	.668	.165	.020	.043	.315	.686	.258	.328	.354	.682

Data notes: game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections