Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Roki Sasaki vs AJ Smith-Shawver · 89°F

6.8% edge · Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers win

47.9%

Atlanta Braves win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

10.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.13)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.17)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.3

Over

62.0%

Under

38.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	47.9%	-126	+109
Atlanta Braves	52.1%	+117	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Roki Sasaki RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	4.9	4.5	5.3	2.1	2.9
AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.5	4.7	4.4	2.2	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Roki Sasaki4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

AJ Smith-Shawver4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.9	.594	.175	.038	.351	.684	1.268	.279	.385	.593	.977
Freddie Freeman	4.8	.765	.225	.011	.194	.496	.941	.283	.363	.479	.842
Mookie Betts	4.7	.709	.196	.016	.203	.463	.636	.270	.347	.470	.817
Max Muncy	4.5	.486	.134	.010	.253	.626	1.243	.228	.341	.464	.805
Tommy Edman	4.4	.683	.152	.031	.127	.291	.967	.242	.300	.388	.688
Kyle Tucker	4.3	.590	.156	.023	.196	.579	.793	.260	.363	.472	.835
Alek Thomas	4.2	.601	.174	.017	.142	.215	1.041	.235	.280	.395	.676
Teoscar Hernández	4.1	.567	.158	.006	.213	.293	1.187	.250	.309	.464	.773
Hunter Feduccia	4.0	.530	.130	.016	.111	.392	1.121	.220	.301	.359	.660

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.734	.147	.011	.254	.502	.913	.277	.362	.502	.865
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.677	.158	.015	.245	.661	1.005	.284	.396	.522	.918
Matt Olson	4.5	.545	.184	.007	.295	.578	1.138	.268	.369	.549	.918
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.784	.197	.015	.109	.269	.586	.272	.322	.409	.731
Michael Harris II	4.3	.720	.183	.023	.213	.200	.885	.283	.322	.499	.820
Ozzie Albies	4.1	.632	.162	.010	.167	.342	.674	.259	.328	.441	.769
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.474	.148	.015	.170	.482	1.024	.230	.330	.426	.756
Austin Riley	3.9	.530	.150	.011	.188	.333	1.163	.249	.324	.457	.781
Sean Murphy	3.8	.409	.133	.009	.175	.398	1.120	.218	.315	.421	.736

Data notes: home starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 24 BF vs LHB this season · home starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 16 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections