Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Tomoyuki Sugano vs Grant Holmes · 79°F

1.1% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

33.8%

Atlanta Braves win

66.3%

Fair line (home)

-196

Proj. total

11.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.82)Atlanta Braves (mean 6.43)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.25

Over

60.0%

Under

30.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	33.8%	+200	+196
Atlanta Braves	66.3%	-221	-196

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.7	2.6	6.8	1.3	3.6
Grant Holmes RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.8	4.5	5.2	1.6	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 27%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Grant Holmes4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.863	.186	.062	.126	.303	.810	.279	.334	.434	.768
Cole Carrigg	4.7	.763	.185	.057	.127	.341	1.005	.264	.326	.423	.749
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.564	.183	.022	.311	.310	1.317	.256	.313	.532	.844
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.762	.196	.016	.152	.384	.745	.280	.350	.450	.801
Willi Castro	4.3	.683	.164	.025	.126	.343	1.049	.254	.328	.404	.732
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.612	.164	.050	.221	.220	1.043	.262	.306	.494	.800
Connor Norby	4.1	.627	.197	.009	.143	.327	1.047	.259	.325	.430	.755
Zac Veen	4.0	.604	.173	.029	.169	.281	.971	.261	.317	.459	.776
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.605	.189	.016	.124	.219	.949	.254	.300	.415	.715

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.954	.204	.013	.285	.377	.604	.333	.391	.581	.972
Ozzie Albies	4.7	.901	.234	.015	.203	.271	.469	.310	.357	.510	.867
Matt Olson	4.6	.752	.252	.009	.352	.438	.807	.333	.402	.657	1.059
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.847	.198	.020	.275	.496	.671	.343	.424	.615	1.038
Michael Harris II	4.4	.899	.248	.029	.243	.153	.583	.340	.367	.588	.955
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.913	.234	.015	.111	.190	.364	.315	.349	.463	.812
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.654	.203	.023	.210	.385	.707	.293	.365	.530	.895
Sean Murphy	4.0	.604	.184	.011	.204	.328	.835	.276	.348	.502	.850
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.703	.175	.012	.107	.368	.549	.283	.355	.431	.786

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections