Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Mason Adams vs Tyler Mahle · 88°F

2.1% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

33.4%

Atlanta Braves win

66.6%

Fair line (home)

-200

Proj. total

10.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.70)Atlanta Braves (mean 6.26)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.96

Over

66.8%

Under

33.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	33.4%	+213	+200
Atlanta Braves	66.6%	-236	-200

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Mason Adams RHP · Colorado Rockies	3.8	2.6	5.2	1.4	2.6
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.1	4.8	5.5	1.5	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Mason Adams4+ 27%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Tyler Mahle4+ 73%6+ 35%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.857	.186	.068	.133	.278	.817	.280	.329	.442	.772
Connor Norby	4.7	.712	.228	.009	.176	.354	1.201	.264	.326	.446	.772
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.569	.188	.019	.320	.299	1.328	.260	.314	.541	.855
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.764	.194	.016	.149	.363	.763	.278	.345	.445	.790
Willi Castro	4.3	.685	.161	.027	.133	.322	1.084	.255	.323	.411	.735
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.626	.160	.048	.231	.194	1.064	.266	.305	.502	.807
Troy Johnston	4.1	.723	.196	.023	.112	.261	.782	.276	.330	.427	.757
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.577	.167	.028	.119	.242	.713	.238	.289	.393	.682
Ryan Ritter	3.9	.608	.155	.029	.103	.254	1.019	.249	.308	.395	.702

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.944	.188	.015	.251	.451	.679	.323	.394	.548	.942
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.842	.213	.020	.239	.620	.794	.326	.424	.567	.991
Matt Olson	4.6	.727	.245	.009	.294	.541	.882	.317	.403	.603	1.005
Michael Harris II	4.5	.917	.237	.034	.222	.181	.683	.330	.362	.557	.919
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.931	.240	.017	.104	.232	.410	.314	.355	.457	.812
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.796	.212	.012	.172	.308	.488	.305	.364	.497	.861
Sean Murphy	4.2	.594	.181	.010	.182	.398	.935	.264	.351	.468	.818
Austin Riley	4.0	.702	.194	.015	.203	.307	.922	.302	.365	.529	.894
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.678	.173	.012	.094	.429	.604	.275	.360	.413	.773

Data notes: away starter Mason Adams: only 10 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mason Adams: only 8 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections