Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Freddy Peralta vs AJ Smith-Shawver · 87°F

2.2% edge · Atlanta Braves

Tampa Bay Rays win

46.2%

Atlanta Braves win

53.8%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

9.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.67)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.82)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.49

Over

55.3%

Under

44.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	46.2%	+103	+117
Atlanta Braves	53.8%	-111	-117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.1	5.1	5.2	2.0	2.7
AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.7	4.3	4.9	1.9	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Freddy Peralta4+ 76%6+ 41%8+ 13%

AJ Smith-Shawver4+ 64%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.856	.190	.010	.191	.471	.806	.289	.365	.471	.836
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.728	.170	.003	.186	.490	1.237	.261	.346	.437	.783
Junior Caminero	4.6	.648	.167	.008	.338	.435	.946	.279	.351	.567	.918
Liam Hicks	4.5	.732	.148	.011	.133	.479	.658	.259	.348	.402	.751
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.014	.133	.047	.015	.238	.468	.292	.332	.358	.689
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.611	.182	.019	.145	.275	.979	.240	.294	.404	.699
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.571	.142	.028	.182	.307	.986	.240	.300	.433	.733
Richie Palacios	4.1	.571	.144	.018	.089	.449	.856	.229	.321	.354	.675
Jorge Mateo	4.0	.526	.172	.011	.112	.238	1.130	.222	.272	.365	.637

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Michael Harris II	4.6	.750	.198	.021	.247	.191	.996	.277	.312	.501	.813
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.637	.143	.013	.233	.608	1.040	.268	.376	.495	.872
Matt Olson	4.4	.522	.175	.005	.292	.516	1.158	.259	.352	.536	.888
Drake Baldwin	4.3	.657	.140	.009	.225	.399	.887	.268	.343	.484	.827
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.733	.179	.013	.105	.241	.565	.263	.310	.396	.706
Ozzie Albies	4.1	.617	.154	.009	.162	.293	.692	.252	.314	.429	.743
Austin Riley	4.0	.530	.144	.010	.190	.313	1.205	.243	.311	.447	.758
Mike Yastrzemski	3.8	.456	.143	.017	.168	.407	.974	.231	.319	.431	.750
Sean Murphy	3.7	.410	.126	.005	.174	.364	1.088	.217	.308	.417	.725

Data notes: home starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · home starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections