Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Ryan Feltner vs Martín Pérez · 84°F

0.1% edge · Atlanta Braves

Colorado Rockies win

32.4%

Atlanta Braves win

67.6%

Fair line (home)

-208

Proj. total

11.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.89)Atlanta Braves (mean 6.57)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.46

Over

61.6%

Under

29.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	32.4%	+201	+208
Atlanta Braves	67.6%	-222	-208

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Feltner RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.5	3.2	6.1	1.9	3.4
Martín Pérez LHP · Atlanta Braves	4.3	3.5	4.9	1.4	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Feltner4+ 40%6+ 10%8+ 2%

Martín Pérez4+ 47%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.907	.194	.063	.132	.298	.725	.291	.343	.451	.794
Cole Carrigg	4.7	.793	.195	.043	.122	.311	.936	.266	.324	.416	.740
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.612	.197	.023	.300	.326	1.210	.268	.325	.538	.863
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.780	.198	.017	.145	.384	.695	.282	.353	.447	.800
Connor Norby	4.4	.688	.222	.007	.154	.337	1.032	.268	.331	.443	.774
Willi Castro	4.3	.704	.173	.017	.118	.315	.987	.262	.332	.407	.740
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.629	.168	.050	.208	.208	.971	.269	.311	.496	.807
Jordan Beck	4.0	.597	.166	.037	.137	.282	1.026	.250	.306	.423	.729
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.615	.198	.016	.133	.207	.891	.260	.303	.429	.732

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.917	.185	.013	.275	.489	.694	.323	.397	.564	.961
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.831	.201	.021	.279	.659	.781	.332	.433	.601	1.034
Matt Olson	4.6	.699	.241	.009	.324	.555	.897	.316	.403	.621	1.025
Mauricio Dubón	4.5	.937	.244	.018	.111	.261	.436	.310	.354	.456	.809
Michael Harris II	4.4	.898	.228	.031	.238	.189	.674	.334	.367	.574	.941
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.786	.204	.011	.191	.326	.492	.304	.364	.508	.873
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.613	.184	.021	.199	.470	.796	.277	.364	.501	.865
Austin Riley	4.1	.685	.195	.012	.213	.338	.933	.300	.367	.534	.901
Dominic Smith	4.0	.762	.165	.016	.141	.325	.592	.302	.366	.475	.841

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections