Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale · 74°F

0.5% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies win

38.4%

Atlanta Braves win

61.6%

Fair line (home)

-160

Proj. total

8.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 3.80)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.53

Over

54.0%

Under

34.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	38.4%	+158	+160
Atlanta Braves	61.6%	-173	-160

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.1	5.0	5.7	1.6	2.8
Chris Sale LHP · Atlanta Braves	5.7	6.7	5.1	1.4	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Aaron Nola4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 13%

Chris Sale4+ 92%6+ 69%8+ 35%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.426	.117	.007	.262	.559	1.697	.202	.308	.429	.737
Trea Turner	4.5	.754	.176	.017	.122	.235	1.131	.251	.297	.386	.683
Bryce Harper	4.4	.600	.200	.014	.172	.485	1.242	.252	.340	.441	.781
Luis Arraez	4.3	.990	.177	.031	.057	.186	.278	.305	.341	.404	.745
Alec Bohm	4.2	.708	.172	.014	.107	.235	.862	.253	.304	.385	.689
Edmundo Sosa	4.1	.614	.153	.029	.111	.130	1.147	.231	.270	.369	.639
Bryan De La Cruz	4.0	.593	.140	.004	.119	.206	1.247	.226	.270	.359	.629
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.549	.144	.010	.099	.215	1.118	.222	.277	.349	.627
Derek Hill	3.8	.507	.111	.022	.107	.172	1.358	.209	.254	.343	.597

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.788	.167	.012	.210	.369	.934	.282	.346	.480	.825
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.719	.164	.016	.214	.520	1.006	.285	.375	.500	.875
Matt Olson	4.4	.586	.198	.007	.248	.443	1.136	.267	.346	.513	.859
Michael Harris II	4.3	.758	.202	.026	.187	.163	.890	.288	.319	.489	.808
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.806	.191	.014	.089	.202	.551	.280	.318	.403	.721
Ozzie Albies	4.0	.671	.185	.010	.132	.264	.650	.266	.321	.427	.747
Austin Riley	3.9	.589	.152	.015	.171	.273	1.193	.256	.316	.448	.764
Mike Yastrzemski	3.8	.504	.148	.018	.140	.383	.975	.238	.320	.415	.735
Sean Murphy	3.7	.458	.131	.008	.146	.332	1.087	.224	.306	.401	.706

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections