Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 10, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Martín Pérez · 90°F

5.1% edge · Atlanta Braves

Tampa Bay Rays win

43.0%

Atlanta Braves win

57.0%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

9.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.66)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.13)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.79

Over

58.2%

Under

41.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	43.0%	+104	+133
Atlanta Braves	57.0%	-112	-133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	3.7	6.3	1.4	3.2
Martín Pérez LHP · Atlanta Braves	4.3	2.7	4.9	1.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Nick Martinez4+ 51%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Martín Pérez4+ 29%6+ 5%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.893	.205	.011	.188	.459	.675	.301	.374	.485	.859
Ryan Vilade	4.7	.719	.191	.029	.162	.375	1.040	.256	.321	.427	.748
Junior Caminero	4.6	.692	.177	.008	.341	.417	.784	.294	.362	.587	.949
Jonny DeLuca	4.5	.674	.199	.022	.152	.280	.863	.251	.303	.419	.722
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.067	.140	.047	.017	.215	.387	.306	.342	.375	.716
Nick Madrigal	4.3	.819	.168	.024	.050	.307	.458	.272	.336	.366	.701
Jorge Mateo	4.2	.588	.193	.010	.123	.248	1.031	.235	.284	.384	.668
Nick Fortes	4.0	.665	.172	.006	.109	.200	.596	.251	.299	.386	.685
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.554	.147	.023	.141	.354	.814	.244	.318	.418	.735

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.804	.173	.010	.264	.331	.735	.295	.352	.528	.880
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.729	.173	.017	.275	.478	.803	.301	.382	.561	.943
Matt Olson	4.4	.602	.203	.007	.307	.413	.932	.284	.356	.573	.928
Michael Harris II	4.3	.773	.216	.025	.241	.138	.691	.305	.331	.545	.876
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.794	.192	.012	.103	.180	.423	.277	.311	.409	.719
Lane Thomas	4.1	.570	.178	.007	.181	.295	.933	.250	.311	.447	.758
Austin Riley	4.0	.596	.169	.009	.209	.246	.991	.268	.321	.489	.810
Brewer Hicklen	3.9	.536	.144	.027	.185	.224	1.020	.250	.303	.460	.764
Ha-Seong Kim	3.7	.581	.141	.010	.100	.338	.633	.247	.320	.383	.704

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections