Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Griffin Jax vs Reynaldo López · 88°F

1.1% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

47.4%

Atlanta Braves win

52.6%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

9.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.63)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.60)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.23

Over

52.2%

Under

39.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	47.4%	+112	+111
Atlanta Braves	52.6%	-121	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Griffin Jax RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	3.2	3.4	3.2	1.2	1.5
Reynaldo López RHP · Atlanta Braves	3.0	2.5	3.1	1.1	1.4

Strikeout ladder

Griffin Jax4+ 45%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Reynaldo López4+ 23%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.875	.198	.008	.195	.446	.757	.295	.367	.481	.848
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.739	.182	.003	.188	.454	1.217	.265	.345	.444	.789
Junior Caminero	4.6	.659	.164	.010	.339	.392	.899	.280	.346	.567	.913
Liam Hicks	4.5	.754	.149	.011	.127	.446	.639	.262	.347	.401	.748
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.4	.623	.150	.027	.191	.299	.978	.244	.300	.435	.735
Chandler Simpson	4.3	1.005	.128	.046	.017	.215	.445	.295	.333	.362	.695
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.543	.135	.026	.158	.360	.957	.229	.301	.404	.705
Richie Palacios	4.0	.592	.142	.022	.085	.405	.817	.233	.317	.355	.672
Jorge Mateo	3.9	.537	.176	.012	.109	.222	1.071	.226	.273	.368	.641

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.713	.156	.009	.221	.404	.975	.267	.338	.470	.809
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.651	.151	.013	.217	.556	1.064	.268	.367	.483	.850
Matt Olson	4.3	.528	.176	.006	.259	.491	1.171	.253	.342	.505	.847
Michael Harris II	4.3	.723	.188	.022	.209	.175	.928	.282	.316	.494	.810
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.737	.179	.013	.091	.218	.594	.261	.303	.384	.687
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.482	.151	.019	.160	.409	1.051	.226	.310	.411	.721
Ozzie Albies	3.9	.612	.148	.010	.149	.276	.663	.254	.315	.425	.739
Austin Riley	3.8	.508	.137	.009	.175	.284	1.181	.238	.302	.433	.735
Sean Murphy	3.7	.408	.128	.006	.161	.340	1.100	.214	.299	.404	.702

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections