Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Tim Mayza vs Tyler Mahle · 80°F

4.2% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies win

48.5%

Atlanta Braves win

51.5%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.75)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.46

Over

54.7%

Under

45.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	48.5%	+121	+106
Atlanta Braves	51.5%	-131	-106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tim Mayza LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	2.1	1.9	2.3	0.8	1.0
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.1	4.3	5.5	1.9	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Tim Mayza4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Tyler Mahle4+ 64%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.488	.128	.007	.325	.705	1.478	.230	.347	.500	.847
Trea Turner	4.8	.832	.191	.020	.147	.292	.967	.269	.319	.421	.739
Bryce Harper	4.6	.653	.220	.015	.221	.611	1.026	.277	.376	.505	.881
Luis Arraez	4.5	1.064	.185	.032	.065	.228	.216	.315	.353	.419	.772
Alec Bohm	4.4	.777	.192	.015	.125	.282	.693	.270	.322	.415	.736
Bryson Stott	4.3	.721	.165	.032	.102	.369	.768	.259	.326	.396	.721
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.701	.178	.019	.130	.344	1.135	.267	.330	.425	.755
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.618	.166	.012	.131	.269	.962	.244	.303	.398	.701
Justin Crawford	4.0	.776	.167	.030	.055	.239	.780	.276	.323	.380	.703

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.800	.166	.015	.184	.445	.925	.278	.353	.456	.809
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.5	.731	.177	.015	.189	.595	.980	.285	.386	.483	.869
Matt Olson	4.4	.575	.204	.008	.231	.520	1.112	.262	.354	.497	.851
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.724	.187	.009	.124	.293	.682	.262	.320	.407	.727
Michael Harris II	4.2	.777	.196	.023	.163	.187	.827	.289	.325	.471	.795
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.804	.187	.015	.073	.223	.515	.278	.321	.391	.713
Austin Riley	4.0	.603	.170	.017	.149	.315	1.161	.257	.324	.435	.759
Sean Murphy	3.9	.483	.149	.007	.138	.377	1.105	.224	.313	.391	.703
Ha-Seong Kim	3.8	.602	.144	.009	.068	.422	.752	.247	.337	.357	.693

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections