Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes · 80°F

2.2% edge · Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies win

44.3%

Atlanta Braves win

55.7%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

10.16

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.90)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.26)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.16

Over

50.4%

Under

39.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	44.3%	+111	+126
Atlanta Braves	55.7%	-120	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.7	3.6	5.6	1.9	2.9
Grant Holmes RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.6	3.8	5.1	2.0	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Painter4+ 49%6+ 15%8+ 2%

Grant Holmes4+ 54%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.497	.129	.008	.331	.751	1.468	.235	.359	.513	.872
Trea Turner	4.8	.847	.195	.021	.157	.308	.929	.274	.327	.434	.760
Bryce Harper	4.7	.664	.222	.014	.216	.642	1.011	.279	.382	.504	.886
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.065	.184	.032	.058	.248	.214	.312	.354	.410	.764
Alec Bohm	4.5	.779	.202	.014	.126	.314	.704	.273	.331	.421	.751
Bryson Stott	4.3	.720	.171	.030	.096	.410	.750	.260	.334	.393	.727
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.696	.168	.018	.125	.377	1.116	.262	.331	.412	.744
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.611	.169	.012	.125	.286	.971	.242	.305	.392	.697
Justin Crawford	4.0	.788	.162	.030	.052	.269	.762	.277	.330	.379	.709

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Michael Harris II	4.7	.886	.233	.031	.219	.193	.822	.305	.337	.517	.854
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.761	.183	.016	.215	.612	.875	.298	.398	.517	.915
Matt Olson	4.5	.627	.210	.008	.263	.523	1.009	.282	.370	.540	.910
Drake Baldwin	4.4	.759	.150	.012	.207	.410	.777	.287	.359	.489	.848
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.842	.207	.015	.094	.238	.477	.288	.331	.418	.749
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.725	.182	.015	.142	.308	.575	.278	.339	.445	.784
Austin Riley	4.1	.611	.170	.018	.172	.321	1.075	.263	.330	.459	.789
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.538	.166	.020	.156	.425	.888	.252	.338	.445	.783
Ha-Seong Kim	3.8	.605	.148	.010	.082	.426	.707	.250	.338	.372	.710

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections