Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Andrew Abbott vs Chris Sale · 73°F

2.5% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

31.9%

Atlanta Braves win

68.1%

Fair line (home)

-214

Proj. total

8.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.47)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.10)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.57

Over

54.6%

Under

45.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	31.9%	+233	+214
Atlanta Braves	68.1%	-260	-214

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.2	5.7	1.9	2.9
Chris Sale LHP · Atlanta Braves	5.8	7.5	4.8	1.3	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Abbott4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Chris Sale4+ 95%6+ 79%8+ 48%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Juan Brito	4.6	.618	.178	.011	.098	.288	1.225	.214	.274	.331	.605
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.632	.180	.031	.167	.315	1.453	.245	.305	.426	.731
Sal Stewart	4.4	.635	.181	.003	.193	.294	1.151	.251	.308	.440	.748
Dane Myers	4.3	.664	.141	.005	.101	.273	1.287	.231	.290	.347	.637
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.426	.136	.002	.201	.293	1.545	.202	.273	.397	.671
Matt McLain	4.1	.499	.141	.003	.120	.308	1.348	.207	.277	.344	.621
Oswaldo Cabrera	4.0	.608	.124	.006	.107	.187	1.077	.227	.271	.350	.621
Will Banfield	3.8	.546	.139	.010	.100	.223	1.083	.224	.281	.353	.634
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.7	.578	.117	.018	.077	.183	.916	.227	.273	.338	.611

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.798	.174	.009	.238	.455	.820	.295	.369	.514	.884
Mauricio Dubón	4.5	.877	.207	.016	.104	.272	.495	.286	.333	.417	.750
Matt Olson	4.4	.583	.189	.006	.298	.545	.965	.282	.374	.568	.943
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.707	.184	.009	.171	.323	.601	.273	.334	.455	.789
Michael Harris II	4.2	.761	.203	.018	.219	.198	.725	.303	.340	.529	.869
Austin Riley	4.1	.611	.163	.014	.192	.345	1.099	.266	.335	.473	.808
Sean Murphy	4.0	.499	.147	.008	.178	.421	1.010	.239	.330	.438	.768
Brewer Hicklen	3.9	.540	.138	.029	.167	.309	1.078	.250	.320	.450	.769
Ha-Seong Kim	3.7	.584	.134	.009	.093	.456	.672	.252	.348	.385	.733

Data notes: away batter Will Banfield: only 15 effective PA (3yr weighted) · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections