Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Brandon Williamson vs JR Ritchie · 82°F

1.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

38.0%

Atlanta Braves win

62.0%

Fair line (home)

-163

Proj. total

10.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.74)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.81)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.55

Over

54.4%

Under

36.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	38.0%	+167	+163
Atlanta Braves	62.0%	-183	-163

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Williamson LHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.1	3.1	5.0	2.0	2.9
JR Ritchie RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.1	4.2	4.2	2.0	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Williamson4+ 37%6+ 9%8+ 1%

JR Ritchie4+ 62%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Jorge	4.8	.783	.160	.046	.102	.315	1.136	.244	.300	.369	.669
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.699	.193	.049	.204	.503	1.204	.274	.357	.491	.848
Sal Stewart	4.6	.720	.194	.003	.221	.421	.957	.275	.347	.483	.831
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.644	.181	.003	.152	.475	1.199	.247	.334	.409	.742
JJ Bleday	4.4	.525	.173	.018	.199	.548	.960	.240	.339	.451	.790
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.485	.133	.003	.240	.420	1.320	.227	.315	.453	.768
Dane Myers	4.2	.702	.150	.005	.102	.354	.995	.254	.326	.378	.704
Héctor Rodríguez	4.1	.622	.138	.031	.181	.240	.861	.256	.305	.451	.756
Matt McLain	4.0	.517	.155	.003	.128	.395	1.066	.229	.314	.384	.699

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.755	.185	.013	.273	.715	.862	.307	.418	.564	.982
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.787	.177	.009	.247	.513	.783	.298	.382	.526	.908
Matt Olson	4.5	.608	.209	.005	.304	.604	.963	.289	.389	.578	.967
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.749	.197	.011	.176	.348	.592	.281	.346	.466	.812
Michael Harris II	4.3	.806	.206	.018	.232	.228	.722	.310	.352	.542	.893
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.825	.202	.019	.098	.266	.450	.292	.342	.428	.770
Austin Riley	4.1	.624	.166	.015	.204	.381	1.049	.275	.351	.495	.846
Sean Murphy	4.0	.474	.151	.004	.183	.459	.987	.235	.338	.440	.778
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.597	.141	.009	.090	.509	.669	.251	.355	.379	.734

Data notes: away starter Brandon Williamson: only 55 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections