Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Brady Singer vs Tyler Mahle · 69°F

5.7% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

38.0%

Atlanta Braves win

62.0%

Fair line (home)

-163

Proj. total

9.81

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.38)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.43)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.81

Over

58.4%

Under

34.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	38.0%	+202	+163
Atlanta Braves	62.0%	-224	-163

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brady Singer RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.2	6.0	1.9	3.1
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.2	5.3	5.2	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Brady Singer4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 6%

Tyler Mahle4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Jorge	4.7	.783	.151	.038	.102	.258	1.155	.241	.287	.361	.648
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.703	.194	.042	.200	.435	1.210	.274	.346	.485	.830
Sal Stewart	4.5	.695	.194	.001	.215	.354	.980	.267	.329	.470	.799
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.624	.178	.004	.156	.401	1.237	.242	.316	.406	.722
JJ Bleday	4.3	.510	.168	.016	.194	.484	.987	.234	.324	.439	.763
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.478	.149	.002	.223	.364	1.313	.225	.303	.443	.745
Héctor Rodríguez	4.1	.627	.137	.028	.177	.202	.881	.251	.292	.438	.731
Matt McLain	4.0	.519	.155	.010	.135	.351	1.105	.228	.303	.389	.692
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.633	.133	.022	.086	.238	.781	.243	.295	.364	.658

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.829	.177	.010	.227	.443	.839	.296	.372	.505	.877
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.756	.181	.015	.242	.601	.874	.304	.404	.542	.946
Matt Olson	4.5	.625	.211	.005	.272	.509	1.006	.283	.372	.547	.919
Michael Harris II	4.4	.813	.206	.022	.214	.182	.775	.302	.337	.517	.853
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.840	.199	.017	.093	.246	.474	.288	.335	.417	.752
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.689	.176	.013	.152	.316	.575	.272	.336	.446	.782
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.553	.165	.016	.165	.447	.889	.253	.343	.447	.790
Austin Riley	3.9	.600	.163	.015	.181	.316	1.059	.269	.338	.475	.813
Sean Murphy	3.8	.471	.150	.007	.154	.384	.991	.233	.328	.420	.747

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections