Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 7, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz · 75°F

0.4% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Chicago Cubs win

50.3%

Baltimore Orioles win

49.7%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

9.74

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.00)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.74)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.74

Over

43.2%

Under

46.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	50.3%	-107	-101
Baltimore Orioles	49.7%	-101	+101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.717	.211	.047	.223	.329	1.155	.265	.324	.481	.805
Alex Bregman	4.8	.738	.181	.015	.178	.516	.723	.264	.351	.440	.791
Michael Busch	4.7	.620	.182	.032	.202	.555	1.126	.255	.352	.464	.817
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.662	.184	.017	.192	.504	1.140	.262	.348	.458	.807
Ian Happ	4.5	.572	.175	.018	.173	.585	1.149	.244	.348	.433	.782
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.851	.198	.014	.069	.337	.386	.286	.351	.395	.746
Michael Conforto	4.3	.566	.169	.008	.147	.482	1.083	.239	.334	.407	.741
Dansby Swanson	4.2	.594	.144	.018	.145	.386	1.026	.241	.315	.405	.720
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.596	.162	.009	.117	.330	.828	.244	.319	.391	.709

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.7	.641	.177	.009	.173	.584	1.040	.248	.350	.426	.776
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.697	.184	.013	.155	.470	.696	.259	.340	.425	.765
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.644	.188	.028	.204	.439	.933	.269	.349	.485	.834
Pete Alonso	4.3	.573	.164	.006	.250	.431	.975	.260	.347	.502	.849
Coby Mayo	4.2	.517	.175	.012	.202	.378	1.171	.238	.314	.450	.764
Samuel Basallo	4.1	.572	.160	.011	.203	.347	1.002	.253	.322	.465	.787
Blaze Alexander	4.0	.587	.154	.016	.102	.321	1.117	.238	.313	.374	.687
Dylan Beavers	3.9	.569	.143	.012	.112	.461	.896	.246	.340	.394	.734
Jackson Holliday	3.8	.554	.127	.021	.107	.411	.859	.243	.331	.390	.722

Data notes: away starter Matthew Boyd: only 34 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections