Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Luinder Avila vs Brandon Young · 80°F

0.1% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

42.7%

Baltimore Orioles win

57.3%

Fair line (home)

-134

Proj. total

10.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 5.08)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.69)

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

10.77

Over

48.1%

Under

51.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	42.7%	+130	+134
Baltimore Orioles	57.3%	-141	-134

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.9	.720	.235	.017	.207	.430	1.156	.267	.334	.468	.802
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.8	.832	.261	.036	.241	.363	.712	.315	.371	.557	.929
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.709	.199	.028	.241	.322	1.077	.275	.331	.504	.836
Lane Thomas	4.5	.666	.211	.012	.174	.392	1.012	.259	.329	.444	.772
Michael Massey	4.4	.773	.220	.010	.157	.207	.713	.277	.315	.447	.761
Salvador Perez	4.3	.691	.181	.003	.214	.188	.792	.268	.308	.471	.779
Josh Rojas	4.2	.675	.194	.015	.081	.326	.804	.251	.312	.372	.684
Nick Loftin	4.1	.669	.185	.027	.107	.373	.547	.269	.343	.422	.765
Isaac Collins	4.0	.605	.179	.016	.091	.437	.825	.255	.345	.393	.738

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.762	.224	.036	.212	.582	.849	.293	.385	.514	.898
Adley Rutschman	4.7	.768	.209	.019	.151	.636	.626	.282	.383	.454	.837
Taylor Ward	4.6	.687	.195	.011	.174	.671	.904	.273	.386	.463	.848
Pete Alonso	4.5	.631	.191	.005	.267	.550	.887	.283	.383	.541	.924
Samuel Basallo	4.4	.657	.173	.011	.214	.452	.942	.270	.351	.484	.835
Dylan Beavers	4.3	.675	.177	.015	.123	.615	.837	.272	.381	.431	.812
Colton Cowser	4.2	.589	.157	.008	.169	.510	1.117	.255	.355	.443	.798
Blaze Alexander	4.1	.683	.171	.026	.103	.385	.979	.273	.355	.420	.776
Jackson Holliday	4.0	.620	.151	.026	.106	.504	.777	.264	.364	.416	.780

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections