Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers · 78°F

5.4% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

50.8%

Baltimore Orioles win

49.2%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

9.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.90)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.59)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.49

Over

41.5%

Under

51.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	50.8%	+116	-103
Baltimore Orioles	49.2%	-126	+103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.728	.207	.050	.213	.302	1.070	.265	.318	.474	.792
Alex Bregman	4.8	.777	.193	.014	.169	.489	.641	.273	.354	.445	.799
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.684	.191	.021	.209	.484	1.082	.267	.347	.474	.821
Carson Kelly	4.5	.721	.155	.011	.147	.419	.818	.254	.329	.406	.734
Michael Busch	4.4	.610	.186	.027	.194	.500	.991	.262	.353	.473	.826
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.880	.208	.015	.067	.302	.349	.294	.351	.404	.754
Ian Happ	4.2	.554	.169	.013	.147	.499	1.042	.239	.334	.412	.746
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.615	.154	.017	.139	.362	.937	.248	.318	.410	.728
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.599	.155	.010	.119	.296	.773	.242	.309	.388	.697

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Adley Rutschman	4.7	.730	.188	.013	.138	.526	.674	.260	.348	.413	.761
Taylor Ward	4.6	.632	.181	.010	.146	.624	1.004	.249	.358	.413	.771
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.658	.190	.027	.169	.497	.933	.267	.356	.459	.815
Pete Alonso	4.3	.578	.167	.005	.211	.480	.960	.253	.348	.467	.815
Tyler O'Neill	4.2	.551	.140	.010	.162	.503	1.145	.234	.334	.410	.743
Coby Mayo	4.1	.515	.172	.013	.169	.417	1.137	.236	.321	.428	.750
Samuel Basallo	4.0	.560	.166	.010	.166	.372	.968	.249	.323	.438	.761
Blaze Alexander	3.9	.601	.151	.019	.079	.364	1.072	.245	.331	.368	.698
Leody Taveras	3.8	.617	.139	.021	.081	.304	.773	.247	.311	.369	.680

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections