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0.1% edge · Baltimore OriolesChicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds
July 8, 2026 · Colin Rea vs Dean Kremer · 83°F
Chicago Cubs win
45.9%
Baltimore Orioles win
54.1%
Fair line (home)
-118
Proj. total
10.43
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago Cubs (mean 5.08)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.35)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
10.43
Over
44.6%
Under
48.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 45.9% | +113 | +118 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 54.1% | -123 | -118 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.9 | .731 | .206 | .046 | .241 | .273 | 1.135 | .269 | .318 | .493 | .811 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.8 | .774 | .182 | .012 | .187 | .471 | .660 | .272 | .350 | .453 | .803 |
| Michael Busch | 4.7 | .640 | .184 | .034 | .233 | .495 | 1.080 | .265 | .350 | .496 | .846 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.5 | .667 | .181 | .019 | .220 | .456 | 1.111 | .267 | .344 | .483 | .827 |
| Ian Happ | 4.5 | .573 | .172 | .016 | .197 | .533 | 1.136 | .246 | .341 | .451 | .792 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.3 | .866 | .200 | .015 | .074 | .294 | .370 | .289 | .345 | .401 | .746 |
| Michael Conforto | 4.2 | .568 | .171 | .008 | .157 | .433 | 1.056 | .241 | .326 | .417 | .743 |
| Carson Kelly | 4.1 | .663 | .138 | .009 | .147 | .357 | .780 | .257 | .329 | .418 | .746 |
| Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | .582 | .134 | .017 | .149 | .332 | .968 | .242 | .308 | .410 | .718 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.7 | .724 | .211 | .029 | .240 | .480 | .881 | .286 | .365 | .521 | .885 |
| Adley Rutschman | 4.6 | .737 | .197 | .019 | .181 | .505 | .607 | .277 | .360 | .467 | .827 |
| Taylor Ward | 4.5 | .653 | .179 | .008 | .191 | .560 | .919 | .264 | .363 | .460 | .823 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.4 | .605 | .186 | .006 | .288 | .439 | .870 | .280 | .365 | .554 | .918 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.3 | .632 | .176 | .011 | .239 | .365 | .936 | .272 | .339 | .506 | .846 |
| Dylan Beavers | 4.2 | .637 | .168 | .013 | .135 | .498 | .877 | .260 | .353 | .424 | .777 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.1 | .560 | .154 | .008 | .184 | .420 | 1.125 | .250 | .335 | .449 | .784 |
| Blaze Alexander | 4.0 | .635 | .162 | .018 | .107 | .341 | 1.011 | .258 | .336 | .403 | .739 |
| Jackson Holliday | 3.9 | .572 | .149 | .027 | .124 | .418 | .801 | .256 | .343 | .424 | .766 |
Data notes: home starter Dean Kremer: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Dean Kremer: only 13 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections