Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Shane Baz · 83°F

2.3% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

45.1%

Baltimore Orioles win

54.9%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

10.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 5.26)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.53)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.79

Over

50.0%

Under

50.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	45.1%	+129	+121
Baltimore Orioles	54.9%	-140	-121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.9	.715	.224	.017	.197	.483	1.221	.263	.339	.457	.795
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.8	.825	.258	.032	.240	.392	.758	.311	.373	.551	.924
Jac Caglianone	4.7	.700	.199	.024	.250	.355	1.146	.274	.336	.508	.844
Lane Thomas	4.6	.635	.209	.010	.179	.434	1.084	.254	.332	.442	.774
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.669	.196	.024	.212	.427	.663	.276	.352	.497	.849
Salvador Perez	4.3	.673	.175	.003	.229	.203	.832	.265	.310	.478	.787
Michael Massey	4.2	.724	.206	.009	.155	.212	.704	.274	.315	.447	.761
Josh Rojas	4.1	.652	.179	.014	.086	.355	.846	.249	.317	.373	.690
Isaac Collins	4.0	.599	.184	.018	.083	.477	.864	.255	.354	.391	.744

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.775	.233	.041	.232	.462	.858	.300	.374	.538	.912
Taylor Ward	4.7	.735	.205	.009	.186	.564	.918	.280	.373	.472	.845
Dylan Beavers	4.5	.734	.208	.015	.147	.547	.891	.278	.369	.449	.818
Pete Alonso	4.4	.644	.204	.006	.287	.461	.880	.292	.377	.567	.943
Samuel Basallo	4.3	.685	.174	.011	.238	.356	.943	.281	.345	.512	.857
Blaze Alexander	4.2	.724	.183	.024	.115	.350	1.008	.275	.348	.427	.775
Colton Cowser	4.1	.601	.163	.010	.186	.431	1.101	.264	.349	.468	.817
Leody Taveras	4.0	.699	.142	.052	.107	.308	.776	.272	.331	.426	.757
Jackson Holliday	3.9	.611	.150	.028	.130	.430	.757	.269	.357	.443	.800

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections