Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Noah Cameron vs Kyle Bradish · 78°F

0.8% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

42.6%

Baltimore Orioles win

57.4%

Fair line (home)

-135

Proj. total

10.18

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.80)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.38)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.18

Over

44.6%

Under

45.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	42.6%	+134	+135
Baltimore Orioles	57.4%	-146	-135

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.675	.221	.015	.172	.481	1.306	.249	.327	.426	.752
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.791	.256	.031	.213	.392	.827	.300	.363	.522	.885
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.687	.191	.025	.207	.357	1.198	.262	.326	.466	.792
Lane Thomas	4.5	.634	.205	.011	.138	.431	1.150	.244	.323	.402	.726
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.4	.646	.194	.022	.172	.444	.739	.263	.343	.454	.797
Salvador Perez	4.3	.645	.175	.003	.196	.211	.909	.253	.300	.443	.743
Michael Massey	4.2	.695	.204	.010	.126	.212	.772	.262	.305	.414	.720
Nick Loftin	4.1	.648	.180	.024	.086	.401	.641	.259	.341	.393	.734
Isaac Collins	4.0	.574	.180	.017	.069	.474	.911	.245	.345	.368	.713

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	4.7	.753	.220	.034	.208	.484	.854	.289	.368	.507	.874
Adley Rutschman	4.6	.769	.215	.014	.153	.487	.602	.281	.361	.453	.814
Taylor Ward	4.5	.687	.199	.009	.172	.575	.897	.274	.373	.463	.835
Pete Alonso	4.4	.612	.195	.007	.265	.463	.884	.280	.367	.540	.907
Samuel Basallo	4.3	.651	.176	.013	.221	.366	.934	.273	.340	.494	.834
Tyler O'Neill	4.2	.592	.157	.010	.208	.462	1.036	.263	.351	.481	.832
Coby Mayo	4.1	.569	.182	.012	.204	.376	1.043	.264	.339	.488	.827
Jackson Holliday	4.0	.638	.153	.028	.121	.436	.798	.269	.356	.434	.789
Leody Taveras	3.9	.676	.139	.033	.087	.283	.770	.263	.321	.394	.715

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections