Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Trevor Rogers · 81°F

4.5% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

50.7%

Baltimore Orioles win

49.3%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

9.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.83)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.55)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.37

Over

53.9%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	50.7%	+112	-103
Baltimore Orioles	49.3%	-122	+103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.801	.170	.013	.219	.446	.863	.277	.350	.474	.824
Ozzie Albies	4.7	.802	.202	.008	.164	.296	.629	.270	.323	.433	.756
Matt Olson	4.6	.640	.198	.007	.269	.529	1.011	.276	.363	.528	.892
Michael Harris II	4.5	.831	.202	.024	.209	.190	.789	.296	.330	.501	.831
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.824	.198	.015	.091	.241	.514	.273	.316	.395	.711
Austin Riley	4.3	.650	.176	.014	.186	.339	1.083	.263	.328	.458	.785
Eli White	4.2	.662	.142	.031	.123	.276	1.003	.248	.304	.397	.701
Joey Bart	4.1	.634	.140	.009	.125	.363	1.097	.249	.327	.396	.723
Jorge Mateo	4.0	.592	.178	.013	.104	.224	1.000	.239	.286	.379	.665

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.664	.178	.016	.141	.599	1.056	.249	.351	.407	.757
Pete Alonso	4.5	.578	.174	.005	.280	.497	1.049	.263	.355	.522	.877
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.638	.199	.030	.191	.467	.914	.271	.355	.485	.839
Taylor Ward	4.3	.594	.174	.008	.164	.558	.965	.254	.357	.438	.795
Colton Cowser	4.2	.555	.143	.008	.176	.457	1.272	.239	.329	.424	.753
Leody Taveras	4.1	.638	.130	.047	.101	.333	.930	.245	.309	.385	.694
Jackson Holliday	4.0	.579	.135	.027	.126	.452	.912	.247	.339	.409	.748
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3.9	.546	.154	.017	.173	.180	1.092	.243	.286	.436	.722
Chadwick Tromp	3.8	.522	.135	.007	.093	.279	.958	.219	.280	.342	.622

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections