Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Bryce Elder vs Brandon Young · 80°F

1.9% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

51.4%

Baltimore Orioles win

48.6%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.07)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.70)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.77

Over

47.6%

Under

42.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	51.4%	-102	-106
Baltimore Orioles	48.6%	-106	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.9	.814	.161	.011	.248	.427	.875	.280	.349	.491	.840
Ozzie Albies	4.8	.822	.208	.013	.178	.325	.624	.278	.333	.454	.787
Matt Olson	4.6	.636	.210	.008	.295	.512	1.016	.280	.363	.551	.915
Michael Harris II	4.5	.816	.197	.023	.232	.191	.800	.294	.327	.511	.839
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.824	.211	.018	.104	.242	.538	.278	.320	.413	.733
Dominic Smith	4.3	.754	.160	.014	.129	.326	.757	.268	.329	.414	.743
Austin Riley	4.2	.641	.171	.012	.188	.309	1.080	.262	.323	.459	.782
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.542	.164	.018	.172	.424	.885	.246	.330	.442	.772
Jim Jarvis	4.0	.682	.168	.020	.054	.294	.692	.253	.313	.354	.667

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.714	.199	.016	.144	.546	.959	.264	.354	.426	.780
Pete Alonso	4.5	.622	.185	.005	.276	.452	.960	.271	.354	.526	.880
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.688	.204	.031	.205	.422	.830	.284	.359	.507	.865
Taylor Ward	4.3	.643	.184	.011	.167	.511	.900	.266	.358	.453	.811
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.634	.178	.020	.191	.183	1.090	.256	.295	.453	.748
Leody Taveras	4.1	.682	.142	.051	.100	.295	.844	.256	.313	.399	.712
Tyler O'Neill	4.0	.540	.139	.011	.201	.400	1.053	.250	.332	.464	.796
Jackson Holliday	3.9	.601	.141	.026	.117	.398	.824	.256	.337	.413	.750
Chadwick Tromp	3.8	.564	.134	.007	.087	.257	.893	.226	.282	.344	.626

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections