Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Reynaldo López vs Shane Baz · 83°F

4.9% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

55.6%

Baltimore Orioles win

44.4%

Fair line (home)

+125

Proj. total

9.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.19)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.42)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.62

Over

56.0%

Under

44.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	55.6%	-107	-125
Baltimore Orioles	44.4%	-101	+125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.9	.794	.172	.012	.250	.482	.921	.281	.359	.497	.856
Ozzie Albies	4.8	.803	.201	.010	.180	.354	.680	.272	.333	.446	.779
Matt Olson	4.7	.641	.212	.008	.289	.569	1.062	.282	.375	.551	.926
Michael Harris II	4.6	.828	.203	.023	.229	.213	.869	.297	.334	.513	.847
Mauricio Dubón	4.5	.823	.205	.019	.108	.256	.567	.277	.322	.413	.735
Dominic Smith	4.3	.729	.154	.014	.131	.363	.816	.261	.330	.407	.737
Austin Riley	4.2	.618	.177	.013	.195	.346	1.126	.261	.328	.465	.794
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.539	.156	.022	.167	.461	.940	.244	.335	.438	.773
Jim Jarvis	4.0	.662	.163	.018	.055	.334	.737	.246	.316	.346	.662

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.666	.169	.017	.134	.586	1.095	.245	.345	.396	.741
Pete Alonso	4.5	.577	.174	.005	.278	.472	1.091	.261	.349	.517	.866
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.641	.184	.030	.195	.445	.932	.268	.349	.480	.829
Taylor Ward	4.3	.603	.166	.010	.163	.549	1.005	.254	.355	.436	.790
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.579	.169	.018	.186	.187	1.206	.240	.280	.432	.712
Colton Cowser	4.1	.542	.147	.007	.171	.422	1.260	.239	.325	.425	.750
Leody Taveras	4.0	.626	.129	.047	.095	.309	.918	.245	.307	.385	.692
Jackson Holliday	3.9	.557	.130	.025	.118	.423	.918	.243	.332	.400	.732
Chadwick Tromp	3.8	.521	.135	.005	.083	.271	.970	.215	.275	.330	.604

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections