Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Brandon Young · 85°F

0.1% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies win

47.9%

Baltimore Orioles win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

10.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.31)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.32)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.62

Over

64.9%

Under

35.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	47.9%	+105	+109
Baltimore Orioles	52.1%	-114	-109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.9	.921	.218	.022	.167	.297	.877	.289	.336	.455	.791
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.519	.133	.010	.384	.698	1.321	.257	.371	.578	.949
Bryce Harper	4.7	.704	.229	.015	.266	.583	.916	.296	.387	.554	.941
Alec Bohm	4.6	.832	.197	.013	.151	.293	.642	.280	.332	.438	.770
Brandon Marsh	4.5	.761	.193	.024	.169	.380	1.116	.281	.345	.463	.808
J.T. Realmuto	4.4	.688	.179	.017	.158	.289	.934	.258	.315	.428	.742
Bryson Stott	4.3	.745	.162	.034	.127	.357	.653	.275	.339	.431	.770
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.2	.566	.159	.009	.150	.377	1.038	.236	.311	.403	.715
Justin Crawford	4.0	.804	.168	.030	.064	.263	.776	.284	.334	.396	.730

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.7	.738	.204	.020	.151	.593	.948	.270	.366	.440	.805
Pete Alonso	4.6	.658	.198	.005	.298	.490	.939	.285	.371	.556	.927
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.707	.203	.040	.219	.449	.822	.291	.367	.524	.892
Taylor Ward	4.4	.660	.187	.009	.188	.563	.880	.274	.372	.475	.847
Leody Taveras	4.3	.736	.154	.053	.118	.344	.850	.269	.330	.425	.755
Jackson Holliday	4.2	.652	.155	.027	.139	.469	.839	.263	.351	.433	.784
Coby Mayo	4.1	.558	.181	.012	.210	.376	1.044	.261	.336	.488	.824
Colton Cowser	4.0	.581	.149	.009	.179	.413	1.088	.261	.345	.461	.806
Yohel Pozo	3.9	.716	.193	.009	.134	.131	.478	.283	.311	.448	.759

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections