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2.3% edge · Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds
August 1, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz · 86°F
Philadelphia Phillies win
60.2%
Baltimore Orioles win
39.8%
Fair line (home)
+151
Proj. total
9.5
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.36)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.14)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.5
Over
54.9%
Under
37.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 60.2% | -144 | -151 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 39.8% | +133 | +151 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.9 | .883 | .215 | .021 | .168 | .342 | .942 | .283 | .338 | .450 | .788 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.8 | .498 | .122 | .011 | .377 | .760 | 1.368 | .251 | .377 | .570 | .947 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.7 | .670 | .221 | .015 | .265 | .637 | .960 | .289 | .390 | .548 | .938 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.6 | .830 | .200 | .017 | .155 | .335 | .667 | .284 | .342 | .449 | .791 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.5 | .748 | .195 | .027 | .167 | .407 | 1.183 | .279 | .348 | .464 | .812 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.4 | .665 | .189 | .014 | .155 | .315 | .979 | .255 | .319 | .425 | .744 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.3 | .726 | .167 | .033 | .123 | .391 | .695 | .271 | .342 | .427 | .769 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.2 | .803 | .159 | .033 | .064 | .292 | .852 | .275 | .330 | .383 | .712 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 4.1 | .633 | .138 | .004 | .154 | .290 | 1.059 | .247 | .304 | .409 | .713 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Mayo | 4.6 | .622 | .211 | .013 | .174 | .320 | 1.393 | .241 | .301 | .420 | .721 |
| Taylor Ward | 4.5 | .697 | .194 | .010 | .140 | .453 | 1.102 | .262 | .342 | .421 | .763 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.4 | .714 | .209 | .030 | .149 | .356 | .966 | .277 | .342 | .458 | .800 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.3 | .625 | .188 | .006 | .194 | .371 | 1.056 | .265 | .340 | .469 | .808 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.2 | .595 | .153 | .009 | .158 | .357 | 1.253 | .243 | .314 | .414 | .728 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4.1 | .613 | .182 | .021 | .139 | .144 | 1.191 | .246 | .279 | .411 | .690 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.0 | .687 | .141 | .038 | .078 | .227 | .934 | .255 | .300 | .376 | .676 |
| Jackson Holliday | 3.8 | .607 | .149 | .028 | .088 | .348 | .927 | .253 | .326 | .388 | .714 |
| Jake Rogers | 3.7 | .492 | .128 | .025 | .097 | .265 | 1.150 | .217 | .278 | .355 | .633 |
Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections