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0.6% edge · Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds
August 2, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish · 86°F
Philadelphia Phillies win
55.0%
Baltimore Orioles win
45.0%
Fair line (home)
+122
Proj. total
9.09
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.90)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.19)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.09
Over
50.5%
Under
41.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 55.0% | -131 | -122 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 45.0% | +121 | +122 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.9 | .878 | .210 | .021 | .148 | .324 | 1.000 | .277 | .330 | .431 | .762 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.8 | .486 | .113 | .012 | .337 | .745 | 1.469 | .238 | .364 | .526 | .890 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.7 | .641 | .215 | .013 | .237 | .638 | 1.034 | .276 | .380 | .514 | .894 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.6 | .814 | .193 | .016 | .134 | .326 | .749 | .276 | .335 | .425 | .760 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.5 | .727 | .190 | .024 | .141 | .405 | 1.254 | .269 | .339 | .433 | .772 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.3 | .658 | .177 | .014 | .137 | .314 | 1.056 | .248 | .311 | .402 | .714 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.2 | .716 | .163 | .032 | .108 | .374 | .734 | .266 | .335 | .409 | .745 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.1 | .779 | .154 | .029 | .059 | .300 | .893 | .268 | .326 | .371 | .696 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 4.0 | .600 | .142 | .006 | .137 | .280 | 1.124 | .238 | .294 | .390 | .684 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Beavers | 4.6 | .671 | .180 | .013 | .127 | .472 | 1.210 | .244 | .326 | .388 | .714 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.5 | .589 | .172 | .006 | .254 | .392 | 1.187 | .256 | .334 | .493 | .828 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.3 | .647 | .185 | .027 | .182 | .373 | 1.039 | .265 | .335 | .465 | .800 |
| Taylor Ward | 4.2 | .625 | .173 | .009 | .150 | .458 | 1.113 | .256 | .343 | .426 | .770 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.2 | .619 | .150 | .026 | .116 | .381 | 1.099 | .244 | .320 | .392 | .712 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4.0 | .572 | .171 | .021 | .161 | .152 | 1.285 | .240 | .276 | .421 | .697 |
| Leody Taveras | 3.9 | .615 | .135 | .046 | .089 | .261 | 1.006 | .243 | .296 | .379 | .675 |
| Colton Cowser | 3.8 | .512 | .133 | .007 | .147 | .341 | 1.279 | .233 | .310 | .404 | .714 |
| Jake Rogers | 3.7 | .434 | .122 | .020 | .123 | .280 | 1.205 | .207 | .274 | .365 | .639 |
Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections