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6.2% edge · Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds
August 4, 2026 · Grayson Rodriguez vs Cade Povich · 85°F
Los Angeles Angels win
46.9%
Baltimore Orioles win
53.1%
Fair line (home)
-113
Proj. total
9.22
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.56)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.66)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.22
Over
42.3%
Under
47.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 46.9% | +141 | +113 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 53.1% | -154 | -113 |
Los Angeles Angels — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | 4.8 | .624 | .203 | .017 | .238 | .375 | 1.284 | .248 | .319 | .466 | .785 |
| Mike Trout | 4.7 | .554 | .143 | .010 | .271 | .703 | 1.322 | .247 | .367 | .494 | .861 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 4.6 | .801 | .185 | .006 | .142 | .477 | .653 | .279 | .362 | .432 | .794 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 4.5 | .793 | .203 | .006 | .104 | .328 | .822 | .268 | .328 | .397 | .725 |
| Denzer Guzman | 4.4 | .660 | .171 | .013 | .133 | .314 | 1.134 | .241 | .300 | .388 | .688 |
| Moisés Ballesteros | 4.3 | .709 | .193 | .013 | .129 | .371 | .792 | .269 | .336 | .425 | .761 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | 4.2 | .537 | .162 | .007 | .154 | .267 | 1.152 | .223 | .282 | .388 | .670 |
| Jose Siri | 4.0 | .509 | .132 | .023 | .169 | .256 | 1.350 | .222 | .278 | .404 | .681 |
| Wade Meckler | 3.9 | .683 | .156 | .012 | .061 | .389 | .884 | .259 | .336 | .362 | .698 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Beavers | 4.7 | .674 | .184 | .014 | .141 | .618 | 1.072 | .253 | .356 | .411 | .767 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.5 | .584 | .182 | .007 | .269 | .511 | 1.073 | .264 | .358 | .518 | .876 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.4 | .653 | .193 | .031 | .198 | .487 | .922 | .275 | .361 | .493 | .854 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4.3 | .613 | .180 | .018 | .197 | .220 | 1.242 | .248 | .294 | .447 | .742 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.2 | .600 | .146 | .027 | .130 | .507 | .972 | .246 | .343 | .407 | .749 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.1 | .504 | .162 | .011 | .211 | .406 | 1.177 | .243 | .325 | .465 | .790 |
| Christian Franklin | 4.0 | .549 | .138 | .014 | .076 | .479 | 1.115 | .224 | .325 | .337 | .663 |
| Colton Cowser | 3.9 | .500 | .134 | .008 | .163 | .449 | 1.182 | .237 | .334 | .425 | .759 |
| Carlos Narváez | 3.8 | .491 | .144 | .005 | .112 | .391 | 1.056 | .225 | .313 | .372 | .684 |
Data notes: home starter Cade Povich: only 31 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Cade Povich: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections