New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Carlos Rodón vs Shane Baz · 86°F

3.3% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

54.1%

Baltimore Orioles win

45.9%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

9.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 5.23)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.53)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.75

Over

57.3%

Under

42.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	54.1%	-108	-118
Baltimore Orioles	45.9%	-101	+118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.9	5.9	4.5	2.2	2.5
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	5.8	5.6	2.4	3.2

Strikeout ladder

Carlos Rodón4+ 80%6+ 53%8+ 27%

Shane Baz4+ 80%6+ 51%8+ 25%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.9	.609	.166	.021	.246	.675	1.036	.250	.359	.476	.835
Ben Rice	4.8	.609	.174	.022	.327	.548	.994	.271	.363	.558	.921
Heliot Ramos	4.7	.753	.187	.026	.200	.370	1.113	.275	.341	.474	.815
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.814	.209	.026	.225	.254	.658	.297	.338	.515	.854
Spencer Jones	4.4	.556	.155	.008	.220	.390	1.618	.234	.306	.441	.747
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.595	.124	.018	.232	.443	1.118	.251	.333	.473	.806
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.535	.179	.009	.081	.470	1.125	.217	.312	.335	.647
Ryan McMahon	4.1	.511	.136	.004	.182	.484	1.260	.231	.325	.421	.746
Austin Wells	4.0	.487	.140	.009	.182	.395	.981	.229	.313	.427	.739

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.641	.161	.027	.156	.531	1.130	.244	.338	.414	.752
Pete Alonso	4.5	.550	.158	.004	.301	.492	1.106	.258	.352	.531	.882
Tyler O'Neill	4.4	.512	.135	.010	.232	.501	1.298	.232	.327	.454	.780
Coby Mayo	4.3	.487	.167	.011	.234	.395	1.274	.234	.313	.467	.780
Gunnar Henderson	4.2	.578	.172	.028	.207	.433	.915	.266	.349	.496	.845
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.552	.154	.019	.205	.196	1.186	.242	.286	.453	.739
Leody Taveras	4.0	.602	.119	.029	.110	.298	.961	.236	.297	.376	.673
Christian Franklin	3.8	.509	.122	.015	.084	.445	1.108	.218	.317	.338	.655
Carlos Narváez	3.7	.463	.145	.004	.114	.366	1.091	.219	.304	.368	.672

Data notes: away starter Carlos Rodón: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections