New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Kyle Bradish · 80°F

0.7% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

50.9%

Baltimore Orioles win

49.1%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

9.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.86)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.47)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.33

Over

61.5%

Under

38.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	50.9%	-105	-104
Baltimore Orioles	49.1%	-103	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	5.9	5.3	1.6	2.7
Kyle Bradish RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	5.7	5.1	2.2	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Gerrit Cole4+ 85%6+ 55%8+ 24%

Kyle Bradish4+ 84%6+ 53%8+ 21%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.8	.580	.163	.016	.222	.664	1.054	.237	.346	.444	.791
Ben Rice	4.7	.585	.164	.022	.280	.542	1.074	.254	.347	.507	.854
Heliot Ramos	4.6	.724	.172	.019	.182	.371	1.171	.262	.329	.443	.772
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.747	.205	.030	.226	.262	.726	.286	.330	.510	.840
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.4	.585	.131	.017	.208	.457	1.225	.241	.325	.442	.768
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.581	.181	.016	.095	.446	1.137	.230	.316	.361	.677
Spencer Jones	4.2	.506	.165	.013	.203	.343	1.501	.232	.301	.442	.743
Austin Wells	4.1	.492	.147	.006	.180	.395	1.041	.227	.308	.419	.727
José Caballero	4.0	.597	.150	.006	.102	.356	.975	.241	.320	.372	.693

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.5	.657	.159	.020	.157	.416	1.049	.244	.319	.408	.727
Pete Alonso	4.4	.560	.166	.003	.302	.388	1.056	.261	.338	.534	.872
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.599	.168	.029	.222	.375	.939	.261	.331	.489	.821
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.549	.155	.007	.272	.293	1.063	.252	.309	.505	.814
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.553	.164	.017	.250	.162	1.138	.252	.288	.494	.782
Dylan Beavers	4.0	.565	.152	.012	.148	.393	.968	.245	.324	.418	.742
Leody Taveras	3.9	.582	.112	.039	.117	.251	.921	.235	.287	.384	.671
Colton Cowser	3.8	.475	.127	.006	.181	.328	1.174	.232	.306	.433	.738
Carlos Narváez	3.6	.449	.129	.004	.123	.271	1.075	.212	.279	.364	.643

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections