New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Will Warren vs Chris Bassitt · 87°F

4.0% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

54.2%

Baltimore Orioles win

45.8%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

10.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 5.49)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.78)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.27

Over

52.2%

Under

38.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	54.2%	-105	-118
Baltimore Orioles	45.8%	-103	+118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Will Warren RHP · New York Yankees	4.8	5.1	4.8	2.0	2.6
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.8	4.6	5.2	2.0	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Will Warren4+ 78%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Chris Bassitt4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.9	.613	.170	.017	.255	.632	.944	.250	.354	.479	.833
Ben Rice	4.8	.615	.174	.026	.321	.520	.967	.270	.359	.553	.912
Luis García Jr.	4.7	.812	.215	.025	.261	.260	.649	.299	.341	.537	.878
Heliot Ramos	4.6	.726	.179	.022	.202	.351	1.053	.272	.339	.472	.811
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.5	.615	.137	.018	.247	.446	1.110	.256	.338	.487	.824
Spencer Jones	4.3	.561	.168	.013	.244	.358	1.420	.250	.319	.484	.803
Ryan McMahon	4.2	.529	.149	.005	.183	.471	1.208	.232	.324	.422	.746
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.586	.177	.014	.112	.420	1.013	.244	.331	.391	.723
Austin Wells	4.0	.500	.156	.006	.200	.376	.932	.240	.319	.454	.773

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.688	.167	.022	.149	.519	1.026	.251	.340	.413	.753
Pete Alonso	4.5	.587	.174	.005	.306	.456	1.032	.269	.354	.545	.899
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.632	.184	.029	.216	.441	.926	.271	.351	.498	.848
Samuel Basallo	4.3	.558	.158	.010	.275	.347	1.046	.255	.321	.511	.832
Coby Mayo	4.2	.501	.152	.028	.233	.346	1.192	.240	.311	.478	.789
Dylan Beavers	4.1	.601	.160	.012	.137	.465	.944	.253	.342	.418	.760
Leody Taveras	4.0	.614	.123	.043	.115	.299	.898	.243	.303	.394	.696
Colton Cowser	3.9	.502	.136	.006	.179	.397	1.141	.239	.324	.439	.763
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.480	.133	.005	.119	.340	1.064	.218	.297	.366	.663

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections