Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Freddy Peralta vs Trevor Rogers · 79°F

0.2% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays win

46.5%

Baltimore Orioles win

53.5%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

9.28

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.56)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.72)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.28

Over

53.7%

Under

38.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	46.5%	+110	+115
Baltimore Orioles	53.5%	-119	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.1	5.9	4.8	2.3	2.7
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.2	3.9	5.6	1.6	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Freddy Peralta4+ 85%6+ 54%8+ 23%

Trevor Rogers4+ 57%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.923	.206	.012	.183	.443	.664	.306	.376	.486	.862
Jonny DeLuca	4.7	.714	.208	.026	.162	.289	.869	.253	.305	.424	.729
Junior Caminero	4.6	.691	.175	.010	.327	.407	.782	.289	.355	.571	.926
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.682	.183	.023	.157	.340	.989	.254	.316	.425	.741
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.040	.137	.053	.016	.219	.393	.301	.337	.371	.708
Jorge Mateo	4.3	.615	.205	.011	.130	.249	1.072	.240	.288	.394	.682
Kenny Piper	4.2	.479	.168	.008	.148	.308	1.190	.211	.279	.377	.656
Liam Hicks	4.0	.701	.142	.013	.116	.428	.473	.273	.360	.418	.778
Taylor Walls	3.9	.561	.141	.018	.057	.357	.905	.219	.295	.317	.612

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.636	.152	.019	.146	.532	1.091	.237	.332	.393	.725
Pete Alonso	4.5	.548	.162	.003	.296	.474	1.102	.257	.349	.526	.875
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.590	.174	.031	.214	.460	.970	.261	.347	.488	.836
Tyler O'Neill	4.3	.513	.136	.006	.229	.461	1.266	.235	.324	.456	.780
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.537	.146	.009	.251	.341	1.076	.249	.316	.490	.806
Dylan Beavers	4.1	.573	.148	.013	.137	.467	.980	.244	.337	.409	.745
Coby Mayo	4.0	.467	.139	.022	.215	.328	1.201	.235	.306	.466	.772
Colton Cowser	3.8	.465	.118	.006	.183	.399	1.223	.228	.316	.428	.744
Leody Taveras	3.7	.538	.111	.038	.106	.291	.890	.233	.296	.380	.676

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections